One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 57 is a three-round heavyweight bout between Jared Rosholt and Oleksiy Oliynyk. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Rosholt is a -220 favorite (bet $220 to win $100) while Oliynyk is a +180 underdog (bet $100 to win $180). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Rosholt at -230 and Oliynyk at +170, and so far there has been little action on the fight so far as the lines have tightened. I agree that Rosholt should be favored here and I’m surprised there hasn’t been more action in his direction. Here’s why. Rosholt (11-1) is emerging as a force in the heavyweight division. The 28-year-old American was a fantastic college wrestler and he’s transferred his skills on the mat to a successful MMA career so far. He is 3-0 in the UFC with wins over Walt Harris, Soa Palelei and Daniel Omielanczuk, all by decision. He has fantastic wrestling, dominant ground control, and his ground and pound is improving. However, he mostly uses positional control to win his fights, and so far he doesn’t seem like he has many finishing skills; he really could stand to work on his BJJ. However, he’s still young and improving, and if he keeps working on his skillset he could be unstoppable. He has only lost one fight in his career, a KO loss to Derrick Lewis in Legacy FC, but since then he has improved quite a bit and it looks like that loss woke him up a bit. I don’t think Rosholt will win the title, but he definitely could be top 10, and a win over Oliynyk would put him on the fast track to a top 10 spot. Oliynyk (49-9-1) is one of the top submission fighters in the UFC heavyweight division. The 40-year-old Russian has won 40 fights by submission, most of them by using his patented scarf hold headlock. He is currently riding a 10-fight win streak, and is 1-0 in the UFC with a first-round submission win over Anthony Hamilton. He also has notable career victories over the likes of Mirko Cro Cop, Dion Staring, Jeff Monson, and Adlan Amagov. He’s just a big, strong grappler and a tough guy for anyone at 265 to handle on the mat. His striking isn’t very good though, and his chin is pretty poor as well, so he’s always in trouble if his fights stay standing, but if they go to the ground he will always have a chance to win. However, he does his best work from top position, not the bottom, and it will be hard for him to get on top of Rosholt. His best chance to win will be to catch Rosholt’s neck in a scramble, but that’s easier said than done, and that’s why he is the underdog heading into this fight. There is always the threat of Oliynyk catching Rosholt in a scramble and latching on a submission, but it’s not likely. What is much more likely is that Oliynyk is taken down by Rosholt and held on the mat for three rounds en route to a unanimous decision loss. Rosholt is not a finisher and I’m not expecting him to get a stoppage in this fight, although I guess it’s possible he could end it with ground and pound if Oliynyk gets tired in the third round. But I think a decision is much more likely. Either way, I really like Rosholt in this fight and at -220 I think he’s worth putting into a parlay as a very likely winner.
