UFC 180 has eight fighters who are ranked in the UFC’s top 15. UFC Fight Night 57 has seven. That means that UFC 180 is particularly subpar (it is), and/or Fight Night 57 is especially solid for a free card (it is). The headliner between Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson is about as elite as a fight can get without being for a belt. The betting line for Edgar and Swanson was released earlier today, and you can check out Adam Martin’s take on the fight here. That isn’t the only quality bout on the card however, as lightweight strikers Bobby Green and Edson Barboza look to climb the ladder in one of the sport’s deepest divisions. Flyweight contenders Joseph Benavidez and Dustin Ortiz also square off in a bout that could have title implications (more so for Ortiz). 11th ranked Brad Pickett also welcomes Chico Camus to the flyweight division. Also on the Fox Sports 1 card is a heavyweight bout between Jared Rosholt and Alekey Oleinik, who are a combined 4-0 in their UFC careers. Rounding out the broadcast is the return of Matt Wiman, who competes for the first time since January 2013 against scrappy veteran Isaac Vallie-Flagg. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for all of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 57 today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET) Frankie Edgar -190 Cub Swanson +150 Bobby Green -125 Edson Barboza -115 Brad Pickett -210 Chico Camus +160 Jared Rosholt -230 Alexey Oleinik +170 Joseph Benavidez -405 Dustin Ortiz +285 Matt Wiman -230 Isaac Vallie-Flagg +170 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Edson Barboza struggles against fighters who aren’t intimidated by his striking. I have a hard time believing that Bobby Green is suddenly going to turn into a timid fighter across the cage from him. That means Barboza is going to have to deal with pressure, and he doesn’t deal well with pressure. On top of that, Barboza’s chin has let him down in the past, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it again. Green doesn’t have the most power in the world, but I think he has enough to get to Barboza and pick up another win. I have no earthly idea why this fight is on third last, while Benavidez/Ortiz is earlier on the card. At any rate, I think Brad Pickett is in a fairly steep decline at this point in his career, and he has not looked good as a flyweight. I’m not sure Chico Camus has what it takes to beat him in any area, but there’s no way I’m putting my money on Brad Pickett at this point. Jared Rosholt has an advantage over all but about 10 heavyweights in the world in the wrestling department. That will be evident here, as Rosholt will spend zero time on his back en route to winning a decision. Oleinik hasn’t faced many wrestlers, and when he has, he’s historically lost decisions (Chael Sonnen and Chris Tuchscherer both have victories over him). I see no reason that an older, slower version of Oleinik will be able to handle a younger, more physically dominant wrestler in this fight. Rosholt may manage a stoppage here, as Olenik hasn’t been the most durable fighter through his career, but decision is still most likely. Dustin Ortiz is more consistently undervalued in betting lines than almost any other fighter. I expect that to be the case here as well, but rather than being a +200 underdog with a good shot to win, he’s going to have a higher price with only a slight chance to pull off the victory. Ortiz will need to turn this into a wrestling match, as Joseph Benavidez will likely be a bit too clean in the striking for him to win on the feet. In grappling exchanges, he will be bigger than Benavidez, and he’s always good at working to top position. Obviously he needs to be wary of Benavidez’ guillotine, but I still think that is his best shot to victory. In the end I’ll be picking Benavidez, but if I can find +150 or higher on the Ortiz points handicap, that could be a play. Wiman/Vallie-Flagg is a bit tricky. Normally I’d favor Wiman pretty heavily, but he’s coming off a nearly two-year layoff, was knocked out badly in his last appearance, and was one of those fighters who seemed to show a waning interest in MMA. That’s not someone I’m interested in betting, but looking at this bout from a skills perspective, he should have the advantage everywhere. Given Vallie-Flagg’s toughness, this probably goes to a decision, but with his age and Wiman’s layoff, it’s again not something I’m looking to bet. This fight should be enjoyable, but it’s a pass as a bet for me.
