UFC 180 will be one of the more anonymous cards the organization has run in quite sometime, and perhaps features more debuting fighters than any card in UFC history. It has also seen a change at the top of the card which has decreased the drawing power of the event considerably. Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez suffered yet another injury, forcing him out of his title defense against Fabricio Werdum. In his place, the remarkable run of Mark Hunt gets a chance to continue, as he steps in to vie for the interim belt. There are two very good fights on the card backing up the main event. Welterweight prospect Kelvin Gastelum faces another solid veteran in Jake Ellenberger, while Dennis Bermudez looks to prove he deserves a featherweight title shot against former title challenger Ricardo Lamas. Beyond that however, there isn’t much to draw interest to this card. The TUF Latin America finals won’t generate much interest, as the majority of onlookers like haven’t seen any of the season. Jessica Eye and Leslie Smith are both solid bantamweights, but don’t jump off the page. The only other fighters competing on this card who have UFC experience are Chris Heatherly (who suffered the first omoplata defeat in organizational history) and Edgar Garcia (who went 0-2 in his run with the company back in 2009). Not particularly inspiring, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see this card deliver similar numbers to the only other TUF Finale to double as a pay-per-view, UFC 147. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up the main card betting lines this weekend, and today expanded those so that each bout on the card now has odds at Several Bookmakers. Take a look at the opening lines below: ——————– MAIN CARD (PPV, 10pm) Interim UFC Heavyweight Title Fabricio Werdum -300 Mark Hunt +220 Kelvin Gastelum -155 Jake Ellenberger +115 Dennis Bermudez -185 Ricardo Lamas +145 Augusto Montano -185 Chris Heatherly +145 Edgar Garcia -270 Hector Urbina +190 ——————– PRELIIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) TUF Latin America Bantamweight Final Jose Quinonez -265 Alejandro Perez +185 TUF Latin America Featherweight Final Yair Rodriguez -185 Leonardo Morales +145 Jessica Eye -270 Leslie Smith +190 Gabriel Benitez -350 Humberto Brown +250 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7pm ET) Henry Briones -140 Guido Cannetti +100 Marlon Vera -270 Marco Beltran +190 **Although originally expected to take place at UFC 180, two other fights with “TUF: Latin America” fighters – bantamweights Masio Fullen (9-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC) vs. Alexander Torres (1-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) and flyweights Fredy Serrano(1-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) vs. Bentley Syler (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) – will meet at currently unannounced future dates. ——————– Brad’s Analysis: So of these six new lines, I’ve seen four of the fighters compete live before (Edgar Garcia’s bout with Brad Blackburn on the TUF 9 Finale may have been aired, but I have no recollection of watching it at the time). That doesn’t make me eager to bet these fights, as while tape study is important, I feel like I make my best assessments of fighters when watching in real time. Augusto Montano has all of his wins by stoppage and his one loss came by decision. That’s concerning against a grinding style of fighter like Chris Heatherly. Heatherly will very likely be undervalued following a somewhat embarrassing UFC debut that saw him become the first fighter in UFC history to succumb to an omoplata, but he’s actually a fairly solid grappler. Montano is a better striker, but I really wasn’t all that impressed watching his tape, and he was able to be controlled in grappling exchanges. I’m definitely not laying any sort of juice on Montano, but would hope for a decent dog price if I was going to play Heatherly here. Edgar Garcia — a guy who couldn’t hang in the UFC in 2009 — hasn’t made any substantial improvements in his game from what I can see, but he’s probably going to pick up his first win in the Octagon… in 2014. While that’s great for him, it’s kind of depressing from the perspective of a competition level in the UFC. Even worse, a guy who didn’t even fight on a televised prelim back during his first run with the promotion is now kicking off a PPV. There really aren’t words to describe that. Those two fights being on the PPV really took away any enthusiasm I had for this card, and even a decent women’s bantamweight fight between Jessica Eye and Leslie Smith isn’t enough to get it back. In this fight I expect Eye to pick up the win, likely via decision. Leslie Smith struggles with fighters who can move around her forward pressure and answer back with technical striking, and that’s exactly what Eye should be able to do here. She’s going to be too big of a favorite for me to feel comfortable playing here however, as this fight will be competitive. I haven’t watched the TUF episodes with Benitez or Brown yet, and chances are if I can find something better to do (like laundry, or washing dishes) I probably won’t be watching this fight live. It’s just one of those fights I have zero desire to break down or view. I saw Henry Briones’ last fight in Legacy. He fought to a draw against a solid fighter in Adrian Cruz, but again, should that really be enough to earn a UFC shot? Guido Cannetti has seen all of his MMA fights end inside the first round, and like quite a few of the other fighters on this card, he hasn’t fought in over a year. That combination is very worrisome since Briones is durable. I lean fairly heavily towards Briones here but so does the general public, so the price just might not be right. For Beltran/Vera, see my comments on Benitez/Brown. Don’t know, don’t care.
