One of the preliminary card bouts at UFC Fight Night 55 is a three-round light heavyweight matchup Guto Inocente and Anthony Perosh. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Inocente is a -220 favorite (bet $220 to win $100) while Perosh is a +180 underdog (bet $100 to win $180). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened up Inocente at -185 and Perosh at +145, and the betting public is betting on Inocente. I agree with the movement in Inocente’s direction as I think he’s a very likely winner in this spot. Here’s why. Inocente (6-3) made his UFC debut over the summer, getting knocked out by Derrick Lewis in a heavyweight contest. He is now dropping down to light heavyweight, where the 28-year-old Brazilian should excel. Inocente is a very dangerous striker who uses all of his limbs to break his opponents on the feet. He also has an underrated submission game. Training with the Blackzilians, Inocente is a guy who has a lot of potential in the sport. It’s unfortunate he had so many injuries, but now that they are behind him and he’s at a better weight class, he should have more success. He has to fly half-way across the world for this fight against Perosh, but based on the styles, as long as he keeps the fight on the feet he should have a huge edge and that’s why he is the favorite. Perosh (14-8) is one of the oldest fighters in the UFC at 42 years of age. But that hasn’t stopped him from putting together a solid career in the Octagon. Over two stints in the UFC, Perosh is 4-5, including a 4-2 mark at light heavyweight. He has wins over Vinny Magalhaes, Nick Penner, Cyrille Diabate and Tom Blackledge, and his losses have come to Ryan Bader, Ryan Jimmo, Mirko Cro Cop, Christian Wellisch and Jeff Monson. Perosh is a dangerous fighter in all aspects of MMA, but he’s particularly good at submissions, as he’s picked up nine wins via tapout in his career. However, he does have knockout power on the feet, and has five knockouts on his resume. Unfortunately for Perosh, while he is a gifted offensive talent, defensively he is a mess, and his is not good, having been knocked out five times in his career. There’s no doubt Perosh is a dangerous fighter who can’t be counted out, but at his age and with his chin, it’s very difficult to pick him against a younger fighter with knockout power like Inocente, and that’s why he is the underdog heading into this contest, even despite having the hometown edge. Perosh is not a good striker, and his chin is amongst the weakest at 205lbs. He’s also one of the oldest fighters on the entire roster. Although he hasn’t shown it in the UFC yet, Inocente has very good kickboxing and he has a lot of power, and I think this fight was designed to show off his skillset. The fact the fight is in Australia is a bit of a concern, as the long flight and hostile crowd are not factors going in the Brazilian’s favor, but as far as the styles go, this is Inocente’s fight to win or lose, and more often than not I think he wins the fight by knockout. At -220, I lean towards Inocente in this matchup, although I do think there are “safer” fights on the card to bet on. But either way, I think this is a favorite or pass situation.
