One of the main card bouts at Bellator 130 is a three-round lightweight bout between Rick Hawn and Dave Jansen. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Hawn is a -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100) while Jansen is a +185 underdog (bet $100 to win $195). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened up Hawn at -260 and Jansen at +180, and there has been more action on the dog Jansen as the lines have tightened. I actually agreed with the high opening line on Hawn and see some value in him now as a 2-to-1 favorite, as I believe he will win this fight. Here’s why. Hawn (18-3) is one of the top fighters in the Bellator lightweight and welterweight divisions. The 38-year-old American is 10-3 overall in Bellator with wins over Ron Keslar, Brent Weedman (x2), Herman Terado, Karo Parisyan, Lloyd Woodard, Ricardo Tirloni, Lyman Good, Jim Wallhead and LeVon Maynard, with his only losses coming to Douglas Lima, Michael Chandler, and Jay Hieron. He has also won two Bellator tournaments, one at 155lbs and one at 170lbs. After taking a beating against Lima in his last outing in a fight he looked two weight classes smaller in, Hawn is moving back down to 155lbs and I think it’s the right call. At 155lbs, Hawn should be in equal size to his opponents, and I think he will have more success. With his excellent judo background and solid boxing, Hawn is a very consistent, well-rounded, and reliable fighter. He is a great athlete as well, and even though he’s 38 now, he still seems fairly fresh. With a big win over Jansen, Hawn could be close to a title shot in Bellator’s lightweight division, and with so much on the line, I expect him to show up with a great performance. Jansen (19-2) is one of the top lightweights in Bellator. The 35-year-old American is 6-0 in Bellator with wins over Marcin Held, Ricardo Tirloni, Magomed Saadulaev, Ashkan Morvari, and Scott McAfee en route to winning the Bellator lightweight tournament. Prior to Bellator he was in the WEC where he went 0-2 with losses to Ricardo Lamas and Kamal Shalorus. Jansen is a solid fighter with a good wrestling base and decent striking/submissions. He is consistent and has proven himself to be a winner in Bellator, and would have already had a title shot at 155lbs had he not been injured for the last 1.5 years, but that’s the reality of things. The injury layoff is a huge concern to me, especially as Jansen had a lot of momentum before, of which I feel he has lost most if it by now. The oddsmaker also have that concern and that’s why Jansen is the dog heading into this fight, although the betting public isn’t as concerned as they have bet Hawn down. Jansen is the better pure wrestler in this fight, but Hawn has a great judo background and I believe he can use it to stop any of Jansen’s takedown attempts and keep the fight on the feet. And on the feet, I think Hawn is a superior fighter with a lot more knockout power. Hawn is getting up there in age, but so is Jansen, so I think the age factor cancels each other out somewhat. With Jansen coming into this bout off of a long layoff, I believe Hawn has an extra edge, so I feel even more confident about picking him to win this fight. It will likely be by decision, but a knockout is possible. Either way, -200 seems like a fair price to pay for Hawn, and I do think he’s worth putting into a two- or three-team parlay.
