UFC 179 Date: October 25, 2014 Arena: Maracanazinho Gymnasium City: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Flyweight bout: Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen (+135) vs Wilson Reis (-155) Fight Breakdown: The FOX Sports 1 preliminary card for UFC 179 will be featuring a flyweight contest between Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen and Wilson Reis, with Jorgensen being the betting underdog heading into the match-up at +135 ($100 to win $135) and Reis being favored to win at -155 ($155 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen (15-9 MMA, 4-5 UFC) picked up his first win as a flyweight at UFC Fight Night 42 nearly five months ago, defeating a very game Danny Martinez via unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. He will looking to make it two in a row at 125 pounds this Saturday night against Reis, knowing a win here could make him relevant in the division. “Young Guns” is a talented wrestler who won three Pac-10 titles for Boise State University. He works decent takedowns and has a good ground and pound attack, as he likes to rain down heavy punches and elbows. When he’s not doing that, Jorgensen is constantly peppering away with shots to the head and body. He’s wise to the fact that if he is unable to finish at the moment, it would be in his best interest to be scoring as many points as possible. Although he works a decent jab and leg kicks, his general striking game, while improving, is still rudimentary and a work in progress. “Young Guns” has good cardio and I expect him to be ready for a full 15 minutes of action against the Brazilian, should the fight hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Wilson Reis (18-5 MMA, 2-1 UFC) is coming off a unanimous decision victory over promotional newcomer Joby Sanchez at UFC Fight Night 49 just under two months ago, and in a quick turnaround, he looks to make it two in a row against Jorgensen. Reis is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who had an impressive five fight winning streak snapped by fellow Brazilian Iuri Alcantara; he a streak he string together following his release from Bellator, which came after back-to-back losses to current Bellator featherweight champion Patricio “Pitbull” Freire and former Bellator bantamweight champion Eduardo Dantas. He was knocked out in both bouts, and those remain the only two knockout losses in his professional mixed martial arts career. Now in the flyweight division, he will be looking to make a run, and Jorgensen will be his first real test at 125-pounds. The Brazilian is very talented on the mat. He generally likes to take opponents down, beat them up and look for a choke; he prefers the head and arm choke. The former EliteXC bantamweight champion has solid cardio and despite the quick turnaround, I expect him to be ready for three hard rounds of action this Saturday night. Gabe’s Thoughts: I feel this is Reis’ fight to lose. I think he is the stronger fighter of the two, not to mention the superior grappler. I could see him securing a submission for the victory, but more often than not, I think he gets his hand raised via decision. Even if Jorgensen makes it a close fight, or even edges Reis, I think the Brazilian will still take the hometown nod in Brazilian. I feel Jorgensen’s only chance at winning this fight is by knocking Reis out, as I don’t see him taking the nod even if he deserves it. For the record, I don’t think he will deserve it. I don’t see him getting the better of Reis for two out of three rounds, but anything is possible, as Reis could show off unprepared and unfocused. To conclude, I think the two most realistic outcomes to this match-up are Reis by decision and Reis by submission, so at the current betting price of -155, I feel there is plenty of value on the Brazilian to warrant a play. Gabe’s Call: Reis by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Reis (-155) 5.5u to win 3.55u
