This Friday’s “Bellator” 129 card seems to be a new direction for the promotion. It seems they’ve taken Terry Trebilcock’s old King of the Cage formula and farmed out the Bellator name to some random Midwestern promotion running random Midwestern fights between random, once-moderately-named Midwestern fighters. Oh… this really is a Bellator card? My only other explanation for this collection of bouts on a televised broadcast is that Monte Cox staged a hostile takeover of Bellator and is trying to get Extreme Challenge out to a wider audience. Normally I tend to ramble on each specific fight on a card when these opening odds articles come out, but there’s really nothing to discuss here. Josh Neer and Paul Bradley are in the main event, while Houston Alexander is fighting Virgil Zwicker (on about four days’ notice) in the co-main event. The other two Spike TV bouts are James Terry versus Andre Santos, and Davin Clark against Joe Vedepo. I’ll give you a minute to compose yourselves after reading that scorching lineup. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for Extreme Challenge 129 at Several Bookmakers today. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Spike TV, 9pm ET) Paul Bradley -135 Josh Neer -105 Houston Alexander -140 Virgil Zwicker +100 Andre Santos -155 James Terry +115 Joe Vedepo -170 Davin Clark +130 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: This could be the benchmark for degeneracy when it comes to MMA betting, and that’s coming from someone who historically bets on every AXS TV card that airs. In fact, when those lines are released, I’ll probably have better insight into that card. This just doesn’t do anything for me. I know I’ve been going on about how I don’t think Scott Coker has been doing a good job since coming into Bellator, and I’ve seen some people defend him by saying he’s put on fun fights, but regardless of how this card turns out, there are really no redeeming qualities to it. Josh Neer has picked up three wins since he was last in a major promotion, but it’s hard to shake the way he went out in his UFC run. He was knocked out by Mike Pyle, quickly submitted by Justin Edwards, and he should have been stopped multiple times by Court McGee, but McGee seemed like he wanted to prolong the punishment in that bout. He didn’t look particularly good in any realm (aside from a bit of striking against Pyle), and wrestling has never been his strong suit. Paul Bradley is far from the most exciting fighter in the world, but he can wrestle and only really falters when faced with a big size or wrestling advantage. Neither are the case here so I would expect Bradley to get the win. The general public seems to favor Neer (not something I would expect out of the betting public, mind you) so perhaps there could be some value on Bradley closer to fight time. Virgil Zwicker doesn’t normally come to the cage in the best of shape when he’s fighting at 205. This fight is at heavyweight, and he’s taking it on a week’s notice. Houston Alexander isn’t exactly known for his cardio either, but given the circumstances, he should have an advantage if this gets out of the first round. Inside the first round, both men hit hard and aren’t the most durable, so it could go either way. I’m picking Alexander, but not betting this at the current line. If you are, at least pay attention to what sort of weights these guys come in at. Anything over 230 would be a huge red flag, especially since neither is a particularly big 205er. So… Coker’s not even going to pretend not to turn Bellator into Strikeforce 2.0? Zwicker in the last fight, James Terry here. This is pretty much every Strikeforce Challengers card. Terry is a decent fighter to watch. He has a bit of power and can wrestle, he usually only loses to the better fighters he faces. Andre Santos doesn’t fall into that category, and he’s suffered a few TKO losses over the course of his career. I would kind of expect Terry to keep this on the feet and add another to that list. Another fight I’m not overly interested in betting, but the public is once again on the opposite side as me so I may be forced into a small play on him. I really don’t know anything about Davin Clark, so that makes this bout very difficult for me to call. Joe Vedepo is a known commodity, with a decent submission game but a poor chin. Clark has a couple KOs on his record, so he could catch Vedepo here, but he’s also lost to a fighter with a 5-6 record (by submission). That has to make you favor Vedepo, but there’s not too much faith you can have in someone like Vedepo.
