MMA Betting Preview: RFA 4 Odds Breakdown

RFA 4Event: RFA 4 Date: Friday, November 2, 2012 Location: Las Vages, NV, U.S. How to Watch: Preliminary card streams on Sherdog.com main card streams on AXS TV at 10 p.m. (ET) RFA 4 is live Friday night, and it’s going to be an event to remember. Up and down this card is full of UFC veterans and promising up-and-coming prospects, making it one of the must-watch MMA events of November. Not only that, but in my humble opinion this is a card we’ll look at a few years down the road and be in awe of how many promising fighters appeared on this bill. The main event of the evening sees UFC veteran Efrain Escudero battle fellow UFC vet Tyson Griffin in a lightweight contest. Griffin opened as a -285 favorite (bet $285 to win $100) while Escudero came in as a +215 underdog (bet $100 to win $215) according to the MMA odds. The 26-year old Escudero is coming off of two losses in his second stint in the UFC to Mac Danzig and Jacob Volkmann, two fights in which his opponents grinded him out. But between UFC stints, the 155er who trains with UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson and Jamie Varner went 5-1 in regional competition, so maybe he’s just one of those guys who can’t beat the cream of the crop. Griffin, on the other hand, is coming off a 13-month layoff, his last bout coming in October 2011 when he succumbed to a KO loss to Bart Palaszewski. Griffin is 1-4 over his last five bouts and moving back to 155 pounds for this contest after a 1-1 run as a 145er. After being out for over a year, there are many question marks surrounding the 28-year-old. In the co-main event, it’s Las Vegas-based welterweights Phil Dace and Chidi Njokunai squaring off. Njokuani comes in as a -155 favorite,while Dace is a +125 underdog. Njokuani is the younger brother of UFC lightweight Anthony Njokuani, and like his brother, he is a primarily a striker, holding six of his career eight victories by knockout. He has vicious leg kicks just like his brother but, just like his big bro, he’s been finished before, getting submitted once and knocked out twice. Dace, meanwhile, holds five of his career eight wins by knockout. He is currently riding a five-fight winning streak, including a victory over Bellator vet Jeff “Scary Nickname” Nader, and is a live dog in this bout. In a heavyweight tilt earlier in the night, Marcio Cruz takes on Joe Yager. Cruz is a heavy -415 favorite while Yager is a +265 underdog. Cruz is a UFC veteran who is known for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and holds a win over former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir. He was originally set to fight Gilbert Yvel, but an injury forced Yager into short-notice action. Yager, who is undefeated at 5-0, is an interesting prospect, and considering he’s undefeated and fighting Cruz, who hasn’t fought in over a year, he has a very good chance at pulling off the upset in this bout. Next up is a featherweight tilt between favorite Lance Palmer (-280) and underdog Fredson Paixao (+210). Palmer, who was an incredible college wrestler, has transitioned well to MMA and currently sports a 4-0 record while fighting out of Urijah Faber’s Team Alpha Male. He’s one of the most highly-regarded prospects in MMA and could get UFC interest if he defeats the UFC vet Paixao, who has not fought in nearly two years since a brutal flying knee knockout by Pablo Garza. There’s many question marks surrounding the BJJ expert Paixao, who is only 2-2 with 1 No-Contest while fighting in the UFC/WEC. Then it’s a lightweight bout between Guilherme Trindade (+155) and James Krause (-205), who tried out for The Ultimate Fighter 15 but lost in the elimination round. The WEC veteran holds 11 of his 16 victories via submission and is a cagey veteran who is 4-0 in his las four bouts. Trindade, on the other hand, is an 8-0 prospect out of Brazil who is moving to 155. He has finished all eight of his wins, six by knockout and two by submission. He looks like a super-dangerous fighter but is untested at the higher levels of the sport and has been out of the first round only once in his career, so question marks surround him as well. A lightweight battle is next between favorite Dakota Cochrane (-165) and underdog Derrick Burnsed (+135). Cochrane tried out for season TUF 15 but failed to make it past the elimination round when he was decisioned by James Vick. The grinder is coming off the biggest win of his career, a submission of Joe Stevenson, and he also holds career victories over UFC lightweights Jamie Varner and Marcus LeVesseur. Burnsed is another Team Alpha Male-trained fighter and has finished all 10 of his career wins, holding seven of wins by submission and three by knockout. He is currently riding a three-fight winning streak and might be a tough stylistic matchup for Cochrane. Finally, the opening bout is a bantamweight contest between Sergio Pettis (-170 ) and Jimmy Jones (+140). Pettis, who is the younger brother of UFC lightweight star Anthony Pettis, is a big-time prospect and currently undefeated at 5-0 in his MMA career. He is a lightning-fast striker who is equally adept in his submissions and seems like a very dangerous out at this point in his career. Meanwhile, Jones is an Xtreme Couture product who has finished opponents in three of his four wins. He also went 5-0 in amateur MMA fights, so he’s definitely someone with talent and could pose some problems for Pettis in this contest, although the Roufusport product is the favorite for a reason.

Written by Adam Martin.

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