One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 58 is a three-round welterweight bout between Tim Means and Marcio Alexandre Jr. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Means is a -250 favorite (bet $250 to win $100) while Alexandre Jr. is a +190 underdog (bet $100 to win $190). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Means at -290 and Alexandre Jr. at +210 and so far the betting action has mostly been on the dog. Overall I disagree with the line movement as I am picking Means to win this fight. Here’s why. Means (21-6-1) recently picked up a decision win by Hernani Perpetuo to improve to 3-3 in the UFC overall. In the Octagon Means has wins over Perpetuo, Justin Salas and Bernardo Magalhaes and losses to Jorge Masvidal, Neil Magny and Danny Castillo. The 30-year-old American fought his first run in the UFC at 155lbs, but while he was tall for the weight class, he didn’t have enough strength to stop takedowns and lost by being put on his back. However, at 170lbs he has looked much stronger and arguably should be 2-0 as the win by Magny was a controversial decision. Means is a gifted striker with knockout power in all of his limbs. His boxing and muay Thai are excellent, and his elbows and knees in particular stand out. He has knockout power, as evidenced by 15 career T/KO wins. He also has an underrated submission game and is active off of his back, although his wrestling is still fairly weak and he can be put on his back. If the UFC matches up Means with wrestlers he can lose because he can be taken down, but giving him strikers should give Means a good chance to collect wins and put on fun fights for the fans. In this fight against Alexandre Alexandre Jr. (12-1) went to the finals of TUF Brazil 3, ultimately losing in the third round by submission to Warlley Alves. The 25-year-old Brazilian is a striker and he has good power as he has 10 career T/KO wins. He is called “Lyoto” because he is a Karate-based striker just like Lyoto Machida, although obviously he’s not in the same class. But the similarities are there, with the knockout power and accuracy, as well as a laissez-faire approach in the cage. He is dropping down to 170lbs after the fight with Alves, which was at 185lbs, and Alexandre Jr. could have more success at this weight class. He is getting a solid matchup here against Means, who will also look to stand and bang, and if Alexandre Jr. has a good gameplan he could come away with the win. But he has to be aggressive — if he’s too passive, an aggressive Means will take advantage and Alexandre Jr. could be in trouble. He’ll have to land counters all night and pick up points to get a decision win, but it won’t be easy and that’s why he’s the underdog heading into the contest. This should be a pretty good standup fight between two capable strikers, but I lean towards Means, who is a more proven commodity and who is the fighter I believe to be more well rounded in his attack. I am expecting a pretty competitive fight, but I think Means gets his hand raised at the end of 15 minutes. However, the threat of bad judging in Brazil is scaring me about this one. I like Means and feel like the -250 line is fair, but I am very worried that he could fight down to his competition and if that happens, the judges could blow the decision. I am still going to go with Means, but I would recommend caution when betting this fight because of the location and the threat of a bad judging decision should the fight go the distance.
