One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 53 is a three-round featherweight out between Max Holloway and Akira Corassani. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Holloway is a -650 favorite (bet $650 to win $100) while Corassani is a +475 underdog (bet $100 to win $475). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened up Holloway at -475 and Corassani at +325, and all the action has been in Holloway’s direction thus far. The odds are spot on here as Holloway is a bad stylistic matchup for Corassani and deserves to be a high favorite. Here’s why. Holloway (10-3) is one of the top up-and-coming featherweights in the UFC, and yet while many still label him a prospect, this will actually be his 10th UFC fight. So far the 22-year-old Hawaiian is 6-3 in the UFC with wins over Clay Collard, Andre Fili, Will Chope, Leonard Garcia, Justin Lawrence and Pat Schilling with his only losses coming to Dennis Bermudez, Dustin Poirier, and Conor McGregor. Notably, is the only fighter in the UFC to go the distance with McGregor. Holloway is very long and rangy for 145lbs and he uses his reach to great effect as he’s one of the top strikers in the division. He can pick opponent apart from far away with his jab and cross, and he has some of the best body shots in the business. He also has a very good submission game and his takedown defence is solid as well. I believe that Holloway could eventually contend for the title if he keeps improving, and that’s what I like the most about him — every time we see him he looks better and better. Armed with knockout power on the feet and an underrated grappling game, Holloway is one of the toughest outs in the division. He’s one of those fighters who gets stronger as the fight goes on, and that’s a scary guy to deal with for any featherweight on the roster. Corassani (12-4, 1 NC) was a cast member on TUF 14 and has since gone on to post a 3-1 record in the UFC with wins over Maximo Blanco, Andy Ogle and Robbie Peralta and his lone loss coming to Dustin Poirier. The 31-year-old Swede was originally set to fight Chan Sung Jung at this event, but when Jung pulled out the UFC matched him up with Holloway and, despite what the rankings say, I believe this is a more difficult matchup for Corassani. The Swede is a fairly well-rounded fighter with solid striking skills on the feet and a decent submission game as well. For his weight class, he also has decent power. However, his striking defence is very poor and his ability to take a punch has been questioned as he’s been rocked and dropped in numerous fights. I believe Corassani is an above-average featherweight and is deserving of a spot on the UFC roster, but I don’t know how he beats Holloway, who will have a reach advantage on him here and who is a better striker. And the betting public obviously agrees with my take on this as proven by the betting lines. Holloway is taking this fight on relatively short notice and that’s always a concern, but considering he didn’t take much damage against Collard and considering the fact he’s so young, I don’t think the short notice will effect him at all. Although Corassani has some skill, I believe Holloway will utilize his length and outclass his opponent on the feet and finish this fight via TKO sometime in the second or third rounds once Corassani starts to fatigue. The line on Holloway at -650 may seem high but to me it’s fair as I see him winning this fight impressively, and I do think he’s worth parlaying. I also doubt this fight goes the full 15 minutes, so at -150 I do like the prop on the fight doesn’t go the distance as I see a finish in this fight more often than not.
