chris-cariasoUFC 178 Date: September 27, 2014 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV UFC 178 will be live on Pay Per View this Saturday at 10pm ET with a five-fight main card, with televised preliminary action kicking off at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1.Interested in wagering on these plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My fights to AVOID betting for UFC 178 in Las Vegas are: Flyweight title bout: Chris “Kamikaze” Cariaso (+1000) vs Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (-1500) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is expected to be Johnson’s easiest title defense to date, and I agree that it should be. Cariaso poses no threats to the champ. I believe the real question is whether Johnson will defeat him via unanimous decision or inside the distance. Will Cariaso be able to go all 25 minutes of action with the champ? That is really the only question that I think will be answered on Saturday night. It will be a true shock to everybody watching if Cariaso manages to defeat Johnson. Dillashaw defeating Barao was at least imaginable, but imagining Cariaso defeating Johnson seems impossible to do. So is Johnson worth parlaying at -1500? Not really. While I expect him to dominate and win this fight, I don’t think it is worth betting him at that price. At -900, I would have loved him as a parlay piece, but I feel -1500, while justified, does not offer enough value. Gabe’s Call: Johnson by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Welterweight bout: Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole (+190) vs John “Doomsday” Howard (-230) Gabe’s Thoughts: Ebersole’s plan to drop down to the lightweight division was halted by injuries, and he is currently on a two-fight losing streak, coming off decision losses to Rick Story and James Head, respectively. I believe “Bad Boy” will again be undersized heading into this welterweight match-up, considering he is a small 170-pounder taking on a fighter in Howard who has competed at middleweight, and owns a victory over Urijah Hall in said division. I think “Doomsday” should be able to walk away with a decision victory in this scrap, but I could also see him earning a TKO stoppage over Ebersole, if he really starts to pour it on in volume. He will certainly have the edge on the feet over Ebersole, and I think he will find success in keeping the fight there. While I think Howard likely gets his hand raised here, I think he is being over-valued at the current betting line of -230. I think this fight is closer than those odds indicate, but at +190, I don’t think there is enough value to warrant a play on the underdog. “Bad Boy” is someone who should never be counted out of a fight, being a legitimate veteran of the sport who possesses a ton of heart to go with his fight IQ. Personally, I will be hoping he comes through with an upset victory over Howard here, but as far as a bet goes, I don’t think it makes sense to make a wager either way, because I believe that in both cases the risk will be greater than the reward. Gabe’s Call: Howard by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID


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