UFC Fight Night 52 Date: September 20, 2014 Arena: Saitama Super Arena City: Saitama, Japan UFC Fight Night 52 will be live from Japan late Friday night/early Saturday morning with a 12-fight card, including a six-fight main card that will stream live on UFC Fight Pass at 3:30am ET, with preliminary action getting going at 12:30am ET, also on UFC Fight Pass. While there are many bouts worth playing on this card, there are a couple fights I would like to avoid. Sometimes, the best decision you make for an event is the choice to not bet a particular match-up. However, if interested in wagering on any of the other plays for this UFC fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My Bets to AVOID for UFC Fight Night 52 in Japan are: Welterweight bout: Amir Sadollah (+145) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama (-165) Gabe’s Thoughts: Sadollah and Akiyama have a combined five years of absence from action, so ring rust will likely play a factor with both 170-pounders. Sadollah, apart from heavyweight Matt Mitrione, is the only other fighter on the UFC roster to have had all of his professional mixed martial arts bouts inside the Octagon. After winning season seven of The Ultimate Fighter with a first round armbar submission over current 185-pound contender CB Dollaway, he dropped down to the 170-pound division, where he has produced an unimpressive 5-4 record. He last competed two years ago, dropping a unanimous decision to Dan Hardy, who ironically enough was making his return to the Octagon, following an extended layoff. Akiyama last saw action at UFC 144, dropping a controversial unanimous decision to Jake Shields, in a fight I personally scored for the Japanese veteran, but didn’t have a problem with Shields taking the nod. The UFC needed some “name” fighters for their Japan card, so they decided to bring “Sexiyama” back for the co-main event, considering he is famous in Japan for his professional modeling and music career on top of his fighting. Akiyama will have the edge in size and grappling in this bout, while Sadollah will have the edge in striking. If not for their long layoffs, I would strongly favor Akiyama in this bout, likely by decision. However, because of the time away from the cage, I cannot trust either fighter. I would not be surprised to see either welterweight completely run out of gas less than halfway into the very first stanza. Even if one fighter is completely outclassing the other, it is very possible he will gas out and get finishes simply for having nothing left in his tank. Betting on this fight is the true definition of gambling; we are not getting any edge in either fighter, or the over/under. It is in our best interest to stay away from this one. Gabe’s Call: Akiyama by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Johnny Case (+130) vs Kazuki Tokudome (-160) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think there are currently too many question marks surrounding Case to intelligently make a wager on this fight, one way or the other. That is not even considering the fact that Octagon jitters and an adrenaline dump could play a factor with him and his performance in his promotional debut. Case is on an eight-fight winning streak, but has not seen action in a year, so ring rust could also play a factor with his performance. His opponent Tokudome picked up a unanimous decision victory over Cristiano Marcello in his Octagon debut a year and a half ago, but has since dropped back to back decisions to Norman Parke and Yui Chul Nam, respectively; so he will surely have his back against the wall heading into this one. Knowing he desperately needs a win combined with Case’s time away from action and possible Octagon jitters, I would be considering Tokudome for a play, if the line for him was at coin-flip or underdog odds, but at the current betting line of -160, I can’t take the risk. Gabe’s Call: Tokudome by Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
