The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 52 is a three-round lightweight bout between Myles Jury and Takanori Gomi. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Jury is a -550 favorite (bet $550 to win $100) while Gomi is a +425 underdog (bet $100 to win $425). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened up Jury at -405 and Gomi at +285, and the betting public is betting on Jury so far. I do favor Jury in this fight, and I’m picking him to win, but I’m starting to wonder if the line is getting a little bit long. Here’s why. Jury (14-0) competed on TUF 15, where he entered the house as a big favorite before losing a close decision to Al Iaquinta in the semifinals. Since the show, the 25-year-old American has been nothing but solid in the UFC, going 5-0 with wins over Michael Johnson, Mike Ricci, Ramsey Nijem, Chris Saunders and, in his most recent bout, Diego Sanchez. Jury is a well-rounded fighter with excellent, precision striking on the feet, great wrestling, and slick submissions on the ground. He is extremely talented and at only 25, the sky is the limit for him. I believe Jury is one of the best in the division and at this point I think the UFC just wants him to get a signature win on his resume before they start pushing him as a title contender. He takes on Gomi and if he can win this fight by stoppage, it would go a long way towards getting a top-five opponent for his next outing. It’s a solid matchup for him stylistically, and he enters the fight as a large favorite as most believe this is his fight to lose. Gomi (35-9, 1 NC) is one of the all-time best lightweight fighters in MMA. The Japanese star is 35 years old now, but he’s still fighting at a high level, going 4-4 since entering the UFC in 2010 with wins over Isaac Vallie-Flagg, Mac Danzig, Eiji Mitsuoka, and Tyson Griffin and losses to Nate Diaz, Kenny Florian, Clay Guida and Diego Sanchez in an absolute robbery. He has tremendous knockout power in his fists and great boxing overall, and his chin has held up over the years despite all of the wars he’s been on. Although his wrestling has improved over time, it’s still not great and if he can’t stop Jury’s takedowns he’ll be in trouble on the ground dealing with Jury’s submissions. But if it stays standing, he still has his vaunted knockout power and it gives him a chance to win on any given night. Still, he’s at stylistic disadvantages in this fight and while it wouldn’t shock me if he turned back the clock and put on a vintage performance, odds are he gets picked apart by Jury and loses this fight. And that’s why he’s such a big underdog. I don’t think this fight is as much of a mismatch as the betting public thinks, but at the same time I can’t back Gomi here as I don’t think he wins the fight. Sure, he has the KO power to finish anyone in the division, but he’s getting up there in age and looked very hittable against Vallie-Flagg in his last fight, which doesn’t bode well when he goes up against a precision striker like Jury. It’s in his opponent’s backyard, but I think Jury uses his jab to outpoint Gomi and win a clear-cut decision on the judges’ scorecards, although I could also see him securing a sub win if the fight hits the ground. Having said that, I still think -550 seems too high so I don’t think Jury is worth playing here as it’s his first fight in Japan and you never know how he will be effected by the travel. For me, it’s just a fight to watch and enjoy, not one to bet on.
