MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas yesterday released the opening odds for UFC Fight Night 52, and for Tuesday’s MMA Odds and Ends I’ll give my quick thoughts on them. Miesha Tate vs. Rin Nakai Tate opened at -280, Nakai +200, and the public has come in on Tate, pushing her to -350 with Nakai now at +250. I think the public is betting on the wrong side here and I see value in Nakai at the current line. Tate is definitely a good fighter but she takes so much punishment in her fights and looked really bad against Liz Carmouche her last time out. Nakai won’t win the title, but I think she can be top five in the division, and a win over Tate puts her right there. Clearly a dog or pass situation. Myles Jury vs. Takanori Gomi Jury opened at -405, Gomi +285, and now Jury is -505 while Gomi is +335. Jury should absolutely win this fight but the line might be getting a little crazy at this point, because it will be his first time fighting in Japan, which is where Gomi lives and is loved. I do think Jury is a superior fighter but I don’t know if it’s smart laying that big of juice on him in this particular matchup. Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Amir Sadollah Akiyama opened at -185, Sadollah +145, and the line has remained steady. This is a very close fight and I could really see it going either way, but call me crazy, I see slight value in Sadollah. His takedown defence is decent and if he can keep this fight on the feet he should have the edge over Akiyama. At the same time, though, if Akiyama can use his judo to get the takedowns, this is his fight to lose. But I do feel like it’s a dog or pass situation given the odds. Alex Caceres vs. Masanori Kanehara Caceres opened at -245 with Kanehara at +175, and so far action has come in on Caceres, pushing him to -290 with the comeback on Kanehara +210. I think think this fight is closer than people realize, but at the same time I have to pick Caceres as I think he’s a better fighter. But would I lay that sort of juice on him? Not in this spot. The pick is Caceres, but I see no value in the current line. Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Jon delos Reyes Horiguchi opened at -555, Reyes +365, and now Horiguchi is -590 while Reyes is +390. I like Horiguchi here a lot and expect him to win via destruction in this clear mismatch. Reyes is a tough and scrappy fighter but I don’t see how he wins this fight. Even though the line on Horiguchi is high, this is absolutely a favorite or pass situation. Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Takenori Sato Lim opened at -705 with Sato at +435 and the line has remained steady. I figured Lim would open at 7-to-1 so this line didn’t surprise me at all. He’s just the better overall mixed martial artist and he should absolutely win this fight by crushing KO. Even with the line as crazy as it is, this is a favorite or pass situation as far as I’m concerned.
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