The main event of WSOF 13 is a five-round catchweight (147lbs) bout between Marlon Moraes and Cody Bollinger. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Moraes is a -500 favorite (bet $500 to win $100) while Bollinger is a +400 underdog (bet $100 to win $400). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened Moraes at -585 and Bollinger at +385, and Moraes remains the favorite in the hours leading up until the fight. This isn’t a gimme matchup for him, but Moraes is a better fighter than Bollinger and deserves to be the favorite. Here’s why. Moraes (13-4-1) is the WSOF bantamweight champion. He was set to defend his title against Josh Hill, but an injury to Hill forced a last-minute switch and now he’ll take on Bollinger in a five-round bout, albeit a non-title fight. The 26-year-old Brazilian is a force to be reckoned with and would be top 10 in the UFC if he was on their roster. He is currently riding a seven-fight win streak, including victories over Tyson Nam and Miguel Torres. He trains with Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza, and he really is a combination of both guys. Like Edgar, he has great takedown defence and is able to use his hips to keep his fights standing, and like Barboza, he has nasty leg kicks. He’s looked fantastic so far in the WSOF and has shown very few flaws in his game, although to be fair before he entered the WSOF his record was not very good. Still, he’s shown incredible improvements every fight out and at this point it’s hard to see anyone in the WSOF beating him, and that’s why he’s such a big favorite heading into this weekend. Bollinger (16-2, 1 NC) was a contestant on TUF 18 but was booted out of the competition when he couldn’t make weight. He is a massive bantamweight and it’s not shocking he couldn’t make multiple weight cuts inside the house, but when he has time to make the cut he is an effective fighter at 135lbs. Since the show finished, Bollinger has gone 3-0 including 2-0 in WSOF with wins over Pablo Alfonso and Tyson Nam. He looked tremendous in the Alfonso fight but he was poor in the Nam fight, so it’s hard to say just how good he really is. Overall he’s fairly well rounded with decent standup skills to go along with good wrestling and some slick submissions on the ground. At only 23 years of age and with tons of experience already in the fight game, I do believe Bollinger has good potential in the sport if he can make his weight cut healthy. However, this fight against Moraes is not going to be easy at all, and unless Bollinger gets a surprising knockout finish, it’s hard to see how he beats Moraes. This is a great fight, but it’s weird fight because it’s at a 147lb catchweight. I’m not exactly sure how that variable will play in , but I do think it favors Bollinger, who is the naturally bigger fighter. There is also the point to be made that Bollinger took the fight on short notice, but remember, Moraes was training for a completely different opponent with a different style. So that also makes the fight weird. But based on the style matchup itself, Moraes should take this, as he should have good-enough takedown defence to keep the fight standing and on the feet he has a better striking attack. But while Moraes is a beast on the feet, don’t forget he’s been knocked out two times in his career and Bollinger has power. So I think at -500, there’s no value here and I think a pass is the best play. I like Moraes a lot and I think he has a bright future in this sport, but if Bollinger earns the upset it wouldn’t shock me and I don’t want to be caught laying -500 if that happens.
