One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 51 is a three-round bantamweight contest between Yuri Alcantara and Russell Doane. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Alcantara is a -300 favorite (bet $300 to win $100) while Doane is a +250 underdog (bet $100 to win $250). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened Alcantara at -230 and Doane at +170, and so far all the action has come in on Alcantara. I like Alcantara to pick up the win here and can’t blame the public for betting him up to 3-to-1. Here’s why. Alcantara (30-5, 1 NC) is one of the top bantamweights in the UFC. He is overall 5-2, 1 NC overall in the Octagon with wins over Wilson Reis and Vaughan Lee, to name a few, and his only losses have come to Urijah Faber and Hacran Dias (at featherweight). He also holds a win over Ricardo Lamas from his stint in the WEC. Alcantara is a well-rounded finisher who has scored 25 stoppage wins in his career — 13 by T/KO and 12 by submission. He has very good striking and his submission game is through the roof as well. He also has solid wrestling. The only real issue with Alcantara is his cardio, which is not that good, and which cost him in his fight against Faber. But other than his shaky cardio, he’s truly a fantastic fighter and one of the best in the division. At 34 years of age, the Brazilian is not getting younger but he has the opportunity to make one last title run and with a win over Doane, who he matches up well against stylistically, and if he can secure a victory this weekend in impressive fashion, he’ll be on the shortlist of bantamweight contenders. Doane (14-3) is another one of the new wave of Hawaiian fighters who are making a name for themselves in the UFC. Just 28 years of age, Doane is already 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Marcus Brimage and Leandro Issa and overall is riding a three-fight win streak into this matchup with Alcantara, as he also picked up a win over UFC vet Jared Papazian before he entered the UFC. He also has a notable early-career win over Tyson Nam. Doane is a solid overall mixed martial artist and he’s a finisher, having picked up six wins by T/KO and five by submission so far in his career. His ground game is very slick and he’s constantly improving his skills as well. However, while he has looked good so far in the UFC, he’s also shown some flaws in his game, mainly in his striking defence against Brimage, and also in his submission defence (two career losses by tapout). I do like Doane but I feel like he showed too many holes in his game against Brimage, and if anything, was lucky to get the win there. He could surprise us all against Alcantara if he’s able to outcardio the Brazilian, but based on what we know, Alcantara holds almost all the advantages in the fight and that’s why he’s the underdog going into the fight. I believe whether there fight stays on the feet or goes to the ground, Alcantara is a superior mixed martial artist and more of a finisher. His gas tank is a bit scary, but to be honest I don’t think the fight makes it the full 15 minutes. At -300, I do think Alcantara has some value as the first leg of a two-team parlay as I think he holds numerous stylistic advantages in the fight, plus he has the benefit of the hometown crowd. So I think he should be safe to parlay. Also keep an eye out for the props on Alcantara winning by stoppage when those lines come out.
