UFC Fight Night 50 Date: September 5, 2014 Arena: Foxwoods Resort Casino City: Ledyard, CT UFC Fight Night 50 will be live tonight from the Foxwoods Resort Casino in Ledyard, CT. The event will produce a 10-fight card, including a six-fight main card that will be live on FOX Sports 1 at 9pm ET, with a preliminary card preceding it at 7pm ET on the very same channel. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, these lines will be available to you at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My prop plays for UFC Fight Night 50 in Connecticut are: Middleweight bout: Gegard Mousasi (+248) vs Jacare Souza (-270) Mousasi +5.5 (+115) 1u to win 1.15u Not Souza Inside Distance (-245) 2.45u to win 1u I favor Mousasi to win this bout, and should he lose, I think it will be a closely contested decision, in which case we will get a +2.15u return on the 5u moneyline wager on him. Heavyweight bout: Alistair Overeem (-525) vs Ben Rothwell (+450) Overeem Wins in Round One (+100) .5u to win .5u Rothwell by T/KO (+525) .4u to win 2.1u I think there is a good chance Overeem finishes Rothwell in this bout and most likely within the first five minutes of action. I think Rothwell’s only shot at getting his hand raised in this three-round heavyweight scrap is by finishing Overeem by knockout, so Rothwell by T/KO at +525 is a good hedge. I could also see him getting a decision he does not deserve, but that’s not too likely. In short, I think this is Overeem’s fight to lose, and I expect him to get his second consecutive dominant victory inside the Octagon since joining Team Jackson-Winklejohn MMA in Albuquerque, NM, and calling it his new home. Heavyweight bout: Derrick Lewis (-155) vs Matt Mitrione (+145) Fight Goes to Decision (+320) 1u to win 3.2u Lewis by Decision (+744) 1u to win 7.44u I think the chances of this heavyweight contest reaching the judges’ scorecards after 15-minutes of action are much greater than the betting line of +320 currently suggests. Contrary to popular opinion, I think the chances of this fight going the distance are about as good as it ending inside the distance, and at +320, I definitely see value in the line and think it’s worth the risk. It most certainly is a risk, considering these are both heavy-hitters in the UFC’s heavyweight division. That said, aside from value, one thing we could feel good about is that these are both durable heavyweights who don’t have a tendency to gas; their conditioning will get them through the fight, should their chins hold up. Should this fight hit the judges’ scorecards, which it very likely may, I favor Lewis to pick up the nod there, just as I favor him to get the finish, should the fight end inside the distance. At the current betting line of +744, I do see a ton of value on the Lewis by Decision prop and will be making a move on that, as well. Flyweight bout: John Moraga (+210) vs Justin Scoggins (-230) Scoggins by Submission (+975) .6u to win 5.85u I think the betting line for this prop should be +550, so this is simply a value play. Lightweight bout: Al Iaquinta (-570) vs Rodrigo Damm (+480) Iaquinta by Decision (-115) 1.15u to win 1u To put it simply, I think this is the most likely outcome to this match-up and greater than any other possible outcome. At the current betting line of -115, I definitely think it is worth a wager, especially considering you’re paying -570 to get him straight-up on the moneyline. Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi (+145) vs Rafael Natal (-155) Natal by Decision (+163) 1u to win 1.63u I expect Natal’s superior wrestling to be the difference in this match-up and his key to earning a decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I think Camozzi’s poor takedown defense will cost him yet again; not only costing him the bout, but also and more importantly, his spot on the UFC’s middleweight roster. Featherweight bout: Chas Skelly (-210) vs Sean Soriano (+190) Soriano by Decision (+315) 1u to win 3.15u Soriano +3.5 (+105) 1u to win 1.05u I think Soriano is being under-valued in this featherweight scrap. He is the superior striker heading into this bout, and has tremendous takedown defense, as well. Soriano is talented on the feet, but Skelly is very durable, so I like Soriano’s chances of outstriking Skelly en route to a decision victory more than I like him earning a stoppage. I think he will succeed in keeping the fight on the feet long enough to outstrike Skelly for at least two out of three rounds to pick up his first UFC win.
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