One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 50 is a three-round heavyweight matchup between Derrick Lewis and Matt Mitrione. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Lewis is a -155 favorite (bet $155 to win $100) while Mitrione is a +135 underdog (bet $100 to win $135). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened Lewis at -150 and Mitrione at -110, and so far there has been some action on Lewis. Like most heavyweight bouts, this fight could go either way, but I think Lewis has some of the edges and I think he gets the job done. Here’s why. Lewis (11-2, 1 NC) is one of the up-and-coming heavyweights in the UFC. The 29-year-old American is 2-0 in the UFC so far with wins over Jack May (TKO) and Guto Inocente (via TKO) and overall is riding an eight-fight unbeaten streak that also includes a win over Jared Rosholt (KO). Lewis is a big dude and he uses his size to take his opponent down to the ground, where he unleashes heavy ground and pound. He also has power on the feet, but his technique is lacking there and he really does prefer to go the ground. His wrestling is decent as well although he can lose position on the ground, and for a big man he has decent cardio. He’s shown to be a solid heavyweight so far in his Octagon outings and should he take out Mitrione, he’ll be close to earning a top-15 ranking in the heavyweight division. Mitrione (7-3) was a cast member on TUF 10 and has fought all of his professional MMA fights in the UFC Octagon since then. The 36-year-old American is 7-3 overall in the UFC with wins over Shawn Jordan (KO), Phil De Fries (KO), Christian Morecraft (KO), Tim Hague (TKO), Joey Beltran (UD), Kimbo Slice (TKO), and Marcus Jones (TKO) and losses to Cheick Kongo (UD), Roy Nelson (KO) and Brendan Schaub (SUB). Mitrione, a former NFL player, is extremely athletic and moves extremely well in the ring for a big man. He has extreme knockout power in his hands and also has great kicks. His wrestling is poor, though, and it’s cost him in the past in his losses to Kongo and Schaub. He did show he can be knocked out against Nelson, but Nelson is one of the hardest hitters in the division and I don’t think it’s fair to say Mitrione has a bad chin because of that fight. Training at the Blackzilians, Mitirone is always improving his game and if he comes into the fight with Lewis showing better takedown defence, he very well could pull off the upset because he has the advantage on the feet. But the fact he has been taken down to regularly in the past is a bit scary, and it’s why he’s the dog heading into this fight. All heavyweight fights could go either way because of the amount of power being thrown around in the Octagon, and this fight is no different, as realistically I could see either man being knocked out. Although Mitrione has the edge standing, I do think Lewis has the wrestling advantage in this fight and I think he can use it to take Mitrione down to the ground and beat him up there. I think his ground and pound is probably good enough to get the stoppage, but if the fight goes three rounds it wouldn’t shock me. Either way, I do lean towards Lewis in this fight to get the job done. As for a bet, though, I would prefer to wait until the line dips down, and if he hits -130 or lower I think it’s worth taking a stab at him. But for now it’s a pass.
