The main event at UFC Fight Night 50 is a five-round middleweight bout between Jacare Souza and Gegard Mousasi. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Jacare is a -300 favorite (bet $300 to win $100) while Mousasi is a +250 underdog (bet $100 to win $250). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened Jacare are -210 and Mouasi at +160, and so far the public has been all over Jacare. This fight is likely going to be closer than the odds indicate but I do lean towards Jacare and understand why the public has moved in his favor. Jacare (20-3, 1 NC) is the former Strikeforce middleweight champion. The 34-year-old Brazilian is 3-0 since joining the UFC following the fall of Strikeforce, having picked up wins over Chris Camozzi (via submission), Yushin Okami (via TKO), and most recently Francis Carmont (via decision). Overall he is 6-0 since losing his belt in Strikeforce to Luke Rockhold and he’s 10-1 over his last 11 outings. In his career he holds notable victories over the likes or Robbie Lawler, Tim Kennedy, Alexander Shlemenko and Ed Herman, just to name a few. Clearly, he’s one of the best in the world and his resume speaks for itself. As far as skillset goes, Jacare is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division and definitely one of the top contenders. He has world-glass grappling, including great takedown ability and tremendous submissions, and his striking is excellent as well, especially his powerful right hand. Although he did lose the first fight against Mousasi in DREAM, he’s evolved as a fighter over the years since then and has transformed himself into one of the premier mixed martial artists in the sport. Mousasi (35-4-2) is the former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion and the former DREAM middleweight champion. The 29-year-old Dutchman is 2-1 in the UFC so far with wins over Ilir Latifi (via decision) and Mark Munoz (via submission) and his only loss coming to top-ranked Lyoto Machida by decision. Mousasi is 7-1-1 over his last nine fights and is inching closer to getting a shot at the title, and beating Jacare for a second time would be a big step in the right direction. As far as his skillset goes, Mousasi is a very slick grappler but his striking is his best asset, as he’s extremely technical on the feet and a great user of the jab. While his offensive takedowns are solid, his defensive wrestling is a bit of a weak point and he has shown a tendency to be taken down, which is a concern going up against Jacare. Even with that flaw in his game, though, he’s definitely one of the dark horses in the division and could very well earn a title shot if he’s able to defeat Jacare in the main event of UFC Fight Night 50. If the fight stays standing it slightly favors Mousasi but I don’t think it will stay standing. Mousasi has shown improved takedown defence since his loss to King Mo in Strikeforce but Jacare is an elite grappler and I believe he will be able to take Mousasi down just like he did in their first fight. While he might find it difficult to submit Mousasi, he should at least be able to control him on the ground and maybe land some nice ground and pound as well. Although he has a tendency to slow down a bit in the later rounds, I still think Jacare will be able to win at least three of the five rounds here and get the victory. That being said, I think the -300 line is pretty crazy and there’s no way I would play Jacare at that price in what I believe is a pretty competitive matchup. If anything, the OVER 2.5 rounds total at -265 seems like the best bet in this fight as I fully expect it to go past the 12.5 minute mark, but perhaps this is a fight to best just avoid altogether.
