One of the prelims at UFC 177 is a three-round heavyweight bout between Anthony Hamilton and Ruan Potts. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Hamitlon is a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100) while Potts is a +175 underdog (bet $100 to win $175). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened Hamilton at -210 and Nijem at +160, meaning the line has stayed steady since the opener. The opening 2-to-1 line has held steady in Hamilton’s favor and I agree with that as I fully expect him to defeat Ruan Potts, who is not UFC caliber whatsoever. Hamilton (12-3) is the former MFC heavyweight champion. The 34-year-old trains out of Jackson’s and has looked pretty good overall in the last two years save for a submission loss to Alexey Oleinik. He picked up the MFC title with a head kick knockout over Smealinho Rama which was impressive, then defended the belt against Darrill Schoonover with a five-round decision win. He is primarily a striker with knockout power, although he does have a recent submission win as well. His wrestling isn’t too great though and his chin is a bit shaky, but he’s still decent enough to pick off the very bottom guys in the heavyweight division, which is primarily the reason why I think he beats Potts. Potts (8-2) was the former EFC Africa heavyweight champion. He made his UFC debut earlier this year against Soa Palelei and was promptly knocked out with ground and pound. And it wasn’t just a TKO, it was a true KO where Potts went out cold. At 36 years of age and coming off of a knockout of that extent, one has to wonder about his ability to take punishment in the heavyweight division going forward, which is scary against a big boy like Hamilton. If Potts can get the fight to the ground certainly he is the better fighter with better submission ability, but I don’t think Potts has the wrestling to get the fight down there considering his lack of size for the division. As long as Hamilton doesn’t be silly and take the fight to the ground himself, he should have the edge on the feet and so it makes sense Potts is the dog here. I don’t think Potts should be in the UFC. I don’t think his wrestling is that good and I don’t think he has a good chin either. Hamilton isn’t going to do anything special in the UFC but this is certainly his fight to win or lose. I think he has the ability to keep this fight on the feet where he has much better striking and a better chin and therefore I think he should win by knockout since this is a heavyweight fight. Hamilton is -210 and I think it’s a fair price to pay to put him into a parlay, and to be honest I’m a little surprised that the line isn’t higher than it is, so there’s value right now, as far as I’m concerned.
