Although Sweden has hosted a pair of UFC events in the past few years, it seems to have taken a little while for the talent to emerge to match the market. With the UFC’s third attempt in the country, that time seems to have arrived, as the Swedish MMA scene is far more than just Alexander Gustafsson at this point. UFC Fight Night 53 is a good example, as even though headliner Gunnar Nelson is from Iceland, not Sweden, emerging talents like Ilir Latifi and Niklas Backstrom will represent their home country well. In addition, Akira Corassani has impressed of late, while the UFC runs of Magnus Cedenblad and Nico Musoke have been quite solid. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the main card of UFC Fight Night 53 at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass) Gunnar Nelson -350 Rick Story +250 Chan Sung Jung -555 Akira Corassani +365 Ilir Latifi -230 Jan Blachowicz +170 Niklas Backstrom -705 Mike Wilkinson +435 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Gunnar Nelson’s biggest problem isn’t any of his skills in the cage, it’s how long it takes him to get started. That makes Rick Story the perfect matchup for him in most cases, but especially with this fight being five rounds. Eventually Story will leave himself a bit too open on the feet or in a grappling exchange, and Nelson will pounce with his superlative skills. Story often gets a lot of respect from bettors, so if you’re backing Nelson here, it may be beneficial to wait as the line could drop. Personally, I think the line in Jung/Corassani is high, and I’m saying that as someone who takes immense enjoyment from Jung’s style and is not particularly fond of Corassani. There are a couple of reasons for that thought. First, Jung is coming off a massive layoff due to injury, which is never a good sign for a fighter. Second, Corassani’s movement could give Jung’s straightforward style some serious difficulty in finding the target. Jung is still overall the better fighter, but just like I couldn’t back Poirier’s massive line against Corassani, I can’t back Jung here. Ilir Latifi continues to add to his game and gain respect from the general public. Facing another fighter making his UFC debut like he did last time out, we could see this line skyrocket, and I couldn’t disagree as I see Latifi being too strong for Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz is well-rounded, but his skills aren’t superb in any area that will overwhelm Latifi. Unlike the Jung/Corassani line, I think this one is pretty warranted even though Backstrom has less high-level experience. He’s going to be the better striker, showed in his last fight that he can scramble with a good wrestler in Tom Niinimaki, and has a far more dynamic submission game than Mike Wilkinson. There isn’t an area where Backstrom can’t win this fight, and on top of everything, Wilkinson will have been out for nearly 16 months by the time this fight takes place. It’s hard to play a -705 line, but it’s even harder to play Wilkinson here.
