UFC Fight Night 47 August 16, 2014 Lightweight Matchup: Ross Pearson vs Gray Maynard By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics Big Picture: Facing off in the co-main event from Bangor, Maine are two grizzled veterans of the Octagon and former Ultimate Fighter cast members, who may have greater fame than one of the main event fighters. Although both fighters lost their last fight, Ross Pearson is essentially being credited for a win due the controversial decision against Diego Sanchez. He is now being matched up with an even higher ranked opponent in Maynard after a double injury swap. The unranked Pearson opened as a near Pick ‘Em, but ever so slightly the underdog. Now the odds have flipped making Pearson a small favorite currently at -135, with the comeback on the higher ranked underdog #12 Lightweight Maynard +115. The market agrees that this one is a close call, so let’s check the Uber Tale of the Tape to see if we spot any advantages in what appears to be a striker-wrestler matchup. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The biggest difference on the traditional tale of the tape is that Maynard is now over the 35-year old threshold, and concedes more than a five-year Youth Advantage to Ross Pearson. The fighters are similarly sized and both use an Orthodox stance, although Maynard usually enters the cage carrying more weight than his opponents, which pros and cons. Overall, the edge here goes to Pearson. Striking Matchup: Pearson is a striker first, while Maynard is primarily a wrestler, and the stats agree. Pearson is the more accurate striker, more capable of controlling the exchanges and operating at a higher standup pace. Maynard has power, but he also has a fading chin that has been exploited of late. Pearson rates high in accuracy relative to other fighters on the card, while Maynard comes in below average. That precision could be the key here, as Pearson has demonstrated his ability to fight smart, stay out of trouble, and land the more damaging strikes even while moving backwards. It’s hard to predict how Maynard’s losses will affect his strategy, but we’ve seen him pursue opponents around the cage in the past, and that seems like a bad plan of attack against Pearson. If Pearson lands the same strikes on Maynard that he did on Sanchez, Maynard may go down as his chin looks more vulnerable than the inhuman punching bag that is Sanchez. Of course, retreating and countering could cost some points on the cards for Pearson, as it did in his last fight. But we can’t count on lightning striking twice via incompetent judges. Overall, Pearson will be the more technical striker and should win the exchanges, but it will require him staying on his feet. Grappling Matchup: Maynard’s best path to victory is to use his superior wrestling against the British striker. In his string of victories earlier in his career, Maynard’s high ground control was a key factor. The problem is that Maynard’s takedown offense has been less effective recently. While his overall takedown success rate is good, it’s fallen in his recent fights as opponents improved their defense and anticipated his attacks. Staying on his feet against accurate strikers has then proven to be his undoing. Pearson is no stranger to takedowns, having defended 81% on 48 attempts. That’s very good defense, and it will be needed if he’s going to stay back and find openings for his strikes. And once on the ground, Pearson has been successful getting back up again. Should he find himself on his back it’s definitely a bad place to be against a wrestler of Maynard’s caliber, but not if Pearson can get back to his feet quickly. Reed’s Pick: Pearson by Decision (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: The advantages bode well for Pearson to win, and at nearly pick ‘em prices I’ll lean towards a straight play on him. But picking the total will be trickier. The Under of 2.5 rounds is +115, and is a tempting play. About half of lightweight fights end early, but the combination of Maynard’s power and also his vulnerability on his feet may boost the chances of an early finish by strikes by either man. But this line isn’t far off, and the prop plays on Maynard by Decision, or Pearson by T/KO could provide better value later in the week assuming they are each >+200. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis.