The UFC’s next doubleheader will take place on August 23rd, as events are scheduled for Macau, China (Fight Night 48) and Oklahoma City (Fight Night 49) that day. The far superior event on paper is the second one, so we will be releasing the betting lines for that event first. Fight Night 49 will be shown live on Fox Sports 1, and is headlined by a lightweight bout between former UFC champion Benson Henderson and Rafael dos Anjos. The betting line for this main event has been released for just over a week, and the only movement has been slight tightening of the odds. Henderson currently sits as a -280 favorite (bet $280 to win $100) with the comeback on dos Anjos at +240 (bet $100 to win $240). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the remaining bouts on UFC Fight Night 49 today at Several Bookmakers. Those fights include matchups between welterweights Jordan Mein and Mike Pyle, middleweights Francis Carmont and Thales Leites, as well as a featherweight bout between talented youngsters Mirsad Bektic and Max Holloway. Check out the new lines below: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET) Benson Henderson -300 Rafael dos Anjos +220 Jordan Mein -190 Mike Pyle +150 Francis Carmont -150 Thales Leites +110 Max Holloway -385 Clay Collard +265 James Vick -165 Valmir Lazaro +125 Tom Niinimaki -170 Chas Skelly +130 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 2, 8pm ET) Alex Garcia -245 Neil Magny +175 Wilson Reis -305 Joby Sanchez +225 Tony Martin -140 Beneil Dariush +100 Matt Hobar -230 Aaron Phillips +170 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7:30pm ET) Ben Saunders -350 Chris Heatherly +250 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: There are two factors in the Mein/Pyle bout where one fighter has a distinct advantage, and those should determine the outcome of the fight. The first is that Pyle has a significantly better ground game than Mein, and if this does hit the ground he could put the youngster in some bad spots, much like Dan Miller was able to. However, what I see having a bigger impact on the outcome of this bout is Pyle’s durability, or lack thereof. The veteran has been finished in eight of his nine losses, with the last three all coming by TKO, Mein’s speciality. I think he gets his hands on Pyle’s chin at some point and finishes this bout, but it’s far from a confident prediction. I’m equally unsure about Francis Carmont picking up the win against Thales Leites. Carmont’s recent form hasn’t been particularly great, while Leites has experienced a bit of a resurgence since coming back to the UFC. Carmont is still the superior wrestler, but he doesn’t pose much of a threat on the feet, and his ground game is unlikely to trouble Leites. If Carmont gets back in the win column it may have to be by reverting back to his old style of negating his opponent rather than really getting off much offense of his own. We have seen Leites beaten that way in the past, so it is the most likely scenario. Holloway/Bektic is my favorite bout on this card. Both are exciting young fighters who have a high ceiling in the featherweight division. Even though the public seems particularly high on Holloway in this spot, I think Bektic could surprise them. He outgrappled a far superior wrestler in Chas Skelly in his UFC debut, while Holloway has been put on his back multiple times in four of his last five outings. Bektic also has the scrambling to keep Holloway down, and the cardio to go 15 minutes. He will certainly be in danger on the feet, but as long as he devises a gameplan to get inside, I think the ATT product stays undefeated and like a play on him as the dog. (BOUT CANCELLED DUE TO BEKTIC INJURY. CLAY COLLARD IN TO REPLACE HIM.) UPDATE: Looking at tape, I was actually pretty impressed by Clay Collard. He is an ultra aggressive striker, and I can see him actually taking the first round against Max Holloway, since the Hawaiian is a slow starter. After Holloway gets his timing down he should be more than capable of picking Collard apart. The incredibly short notice could see a Collard fade in this bout as well, especially once Holloway’s excellent body work is factored in as well. Holloway should at worst take the last two rounds, but could score a finish as well. I’ll likely be staying away from Vick/Lazaro due to all the unknowns here, but it is an intriguing bout. Lazaro is yet another talented striker coming out of Nova Uniao. He has won his last 11 bouts after starting his career 1-2, with eight of those wins coming by TKO. Vick will have been out of action for just over a year by the time this bout takes place, and despite showing talent, seems like he’s constantly getting injured. The UFC must think very highly of one of these fighters, but I’m still not sure who given Vick’s durability issues and Lazaro’s one-dimensional approach. If Vick stays on the feet here, he could be in some serious trouble however, so a long line could make a small play on Lazaro the way to go. This is another very solid featherweight bout. Both Niinimaki and Skelly lost to very good undefeated prospects in their last UFC bouts, and look to get back on track here. Each fighter also relies on a top position style of grappling to win most of their bouts, but have solid sweeps and scrambling from the bottom. If the grappling cancels out, I lean slightly to Niinimaki on the feet, but I think he’ll be the one ending up in top position anyways since Skelly is a bit sloppy with his shots at times. This will likely be another competitive bout as Skelly’s debut was, so I think I’m most comfortable playing the over rather than a specific side here. Alex Garcia and Neil Magny are about as different as you can get physically in the welterweight division. Garcia is 5’9″ and built like a truck, while Magny is 6’3″ with a reach rivalling any in the entire UFC. Their styles play to their body types too, with Garcia being a powerful striker and grappler who finishes things off quickly in most instances, while Magny keeps things a bit more technical and often goes to decision. This fight will play out along those lines as well, with Garcia being far more likely to get the early stoppage with Magny having a much better chance of winning a decision as his opponent tires. I lean Garcia by a quick submission, but his cardio is always a bit of a red flag. UPDATE: I think Joby Sanchez is a pretty solid prospect, but the fact that he’s had to cut three weeks off his training camp in order to make his UFC debut not the best look he could have hoped for, especially since Wilson Reis is a bit of a stylistic nightmare for him. Sanchez is the better striker here and may have a bit of a speed advantage, but he can get a bit lazy with his kicks which will allow Reis to get in on takedown attempts. Once inside, Reis will be much stronger and should be able to control Sanchez against the cage and on the mat for a decision. I wasn’t sold on Beneil Dariush heading into his bout with Charlie Brenneman, and knocking out the fighter with possibly the worst chin in the UFC didn’t have me any more sold on him against Ramsey Nijem. That worked out against me once and in my favor once. Needless to say, I’m still not sold on Dariush, and I think it will work out for me again. Tony Martin is a better wrestler and good enough as a grappler that I don’t see Dariush getting the sub from his back. Martin’s striking needs some work, but against Dariush it’s passable, and my biggest concern is that he doesn’t gas himself out early like he did against Magomedov. As long as his cardio is in check, I think he picks up the win here. Aaron Phillips got outwrestled in his UFC debut at featherweight, and despite the drop to bantamweight I see the same fate befalling him here. Matt Hobar is a talented fighter who just got a terrible stylistic matchup in his UFC debut against Pedro Munhoz. Phillips has good striking but just lacks the wrestling to compete at this level. Hobar is the type of fighter who won’t hesitate to take advantage of that, as his wrestling and submission game are his forte. Depending on Phillips’ submission defense he may make it the full 15 minutes, but I think he loses either way. In the lone UFC Fight Pass bout, Ben Saunders returns to the UFC to face a tough, but overmatched grappler in Chris Heatherly. Heatherly showed some durability in his most recent RFA bout, but he was also aided greatly by his opponent gassing badly. That won’t be the case with Saunders, and Heatherly will struggle to get the bout to the ground at all. If he gets trapped in the clinch with Saunders on failed takedown attempts he will get punished, and I think he eventually gets stopped.
