UFC on FX 5 Friday, October 5 at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota UFC Welterweight Contender Jake Ellenberger (-370) Profile: Jake Ellenberger (27-6) made his way toward the top of the UFC welterweight title contenders thanks to an impressive six-fight winning streak that included four via TKO/KO over Jake Shields, Sean Pierson, John Howard and Mike Pyle. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old from Omaha saw his winning streak come to an end with a stunning loss to Martin Kampmann, who advanced to a title eliminator bout against Johny Hendricks. The loss was a bit of a surprise considering Ellenberger looked like he was about to finish Kampmann before the tables were turned on him. Ellenberger is 6-2 in the UFC, with the other previous loss coming against interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit in his debut. His win over Shields took just 53 seconds and earned Knockout of the Night honors, and 24 of his 33 career fights have ended with finishes. UFC Welterweight Contender Jay Hieron (+290) Profile: One of the most successful journeymen MMA has seen for years, Jay Hieron (23-5) just can’t seem to find a permanent home. With a career that started in 2003, the 36-year-old Hieron has spent time in Strikeforce, Affliction, the WEC, the UFC (losing to welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre and Jonathan Goulet in his previous stint with the organization), the IFL (winning the inaugural welterweight title), Bellator (losing a welterweight title fight to Ben Askren) and most recently the Legacy Fighting Championship. An inury to Josh Koscheck opened the door for him to return to the UFC against Jake Ellenberger in a bout that was originally scheduled for UFC 151 but postponed one month until UFC on FX 5. Hieron now hopes to show he belongs in the UFC with an impressive performance. Opening UFC on FX 5 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Ellenberger a big -370 favorite (bet $370 to win $100) while Hieron opened as a +275 underdog (bet $290 to win $100) according to the MMA odds. Both fighters have a lot of professional MMA experience with 61 career fights between them. More than half of those bouts (35) have seen them win by finishing their opponents, so UFC bettors might expect to see a similar result here. However, three of Hieron’s previous four fights have gone to the judges along with five of his past seven. Ellenberger is nearly nine years younger than Hieron yet has more wins, fights overall and time inside the UFC Octagon. This would seem to give him a huge edge except that he may be due for a letdown following the loss to Kampmann and after expecting to face a more high-profile opponent in Koscheck. Hieron is no slouch and has relished the chance to return to the UFC ever since a cut ended his fight with Goulet almost exactly seven years ago. He actually owns a unanimous decision win over Ellenberger from back in 2006 when they were in the IFL, so he will also have that past history to draw from in hopes of pulling off the upset.
