Floyd Mayweather Jr and Marcos Maidana meet at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas this fall (September 13, 2014) in a re-match that is unlikely to finish the same way as the first bout. Right now at 5Dimes Sportsbook, ‘Money’ Mayweather is a huge (-900) favorite, with the return on Maidana sitting at (+600). The odds are very similar to the odds for the first fight, as Maidana was at roughly (+600) on fight week. The over/under on rounds was 11.5 with the over paying (-280) and the under kicking back at (+190). The over/under will be a much more interesting line this time around. In the first meeting, the generalization is that neither man has been knocked out before, and that Maidana was unlikely to break through Mayweather’s defenses and score with a big punch. Should the bookies keep a line that high, the under is certainly going to be something to look at. Maidana is an excellent, game fighter who has raised his level over the last year with his outstanding matches against Adrien Broner and Floyd Mayweather, and the re-match is not completely a bad match, but anyone who expects a different outcome than the first time for Maidana is going to be mistaken. By the end of the first fight, Mayweather was the fresher fighter despite the early barrage from Maidana, and Maidana had started to get hit more and more. If Mayweather wants to hit Maidana, he has proven he can. Simply put, how many times can Maidana be expected to break his own ceiling and find a new level? Even though he did that for the first fight, he still lost, so he must raise his level yet again to even have a realistic chance. Mayweather, however, doesn’t have to break his ceiling to beat Maidana. The accepted reason for the re-match is that Mayweather plans to stop Maidana this time around, to prove that the first time, where his opponent got a lot of credit, was a fluke. This is why the over/under for the match is so interesting. In the long run, Maidana is as sturdy as they come, so he could survive to the end of the match even under a the full brunt of a Mayweather onslaught. Mayweather though, will be looking for the KO. An over/under similar to the first fight would see a lot of ‘Money’ come in on Mayweather to score the early stop.
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