One of the televised prelims at UFC on FOX 12 is a three-round light heavyweight match between Patrick “Durkin” Cummins and Kyle “Kingsbu” Kingsbury. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Cummins as a -150 favorite (bet $150 to win $100) while Kingsbury is a +140 underdog (bet $100 to win $140). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Cummins at -190 and Kingsbury at +150, and so far the action has been on the dog Kingsbury. I like Cummins in the fight and I see value in the current line. Here’s why. Cummins (5-1) made his UFC debut earlier this year on one weeks’ notice against Daniel Cormier and he paid the price, losing the fight via first-round knockout. The UFC decided to keep him around for another fight, and he beat Roger Narvaez via second-round TKO to get back into the win column. At 33 years of age Cummins doesn’t have much experience in the cage but he has been wrestling his whole life and his wrestling is by far his best attribute. Although his striking is poor, he is able to use his wrestling to take his opponents down, grind them out, and beat them up for his victories. That might not work against a top-level wrester like Cormier, but against someone like Kingsbury who doesn’t have great wrestling it should be enough to get him the win and that’s why he’s the favorite going into this fight. Kingsbury (11-5, 1 NC) was on TUF season eight and lost to Ryan Bader and Krzystof Soszynski on the show. He got a chance to fight in the UFC even after a poor showing in the house, losing to Tom Lawlor in his UFC debut before pulling off four wins in a row over Razak Al-Hassan, Jared Hamman, Ricardo Romero and Fabio Maldonado. He then hit a decline, losing to Stephan Bonnar, Jimi Manuwa and Glover Teixeira, and he hasn’t fought in nearly two years after the beating Manuwa put on him. That long layoff is cause for a huge concern in this spot, although stylistically Kingsbury does match up decently with Cummins. The 32-year-old American is very big for 205lbs, he is strong, and he is tough. He has mediocre striking but his clinch game is very solid and his wrestling game is also underrated. He also has some decent power on the feet. The biggest worry though is the mental game, as Kingsbury has openly contemplated retirement. And when a fighter does that, along with missing significant amounts of time, it’s not a smart idea to back them, which is why he is the dog in this fight. Although Kingsbury is a better striker and has the better cardio, he has been out for two years and the layoff is going to hurt him here. I believe Cummins will be able to use a mixture of wrestling and strikes to outpoint Kingsbury en route to a decision win, and even though I think he is overrated by the media, at -150 I actually think Cummins is worth a straight play in this spot.
