One of the main card bouts at UFC on FOX 12 is a three-round featherweight bout between Dennis “The Menace” Bermudez and Clay “The Carpenter” Guida. The current betting line for the fight at 5Dimes Sportsbook lists Bermudez as a -160 favorite (bet $160 to win $100) while Guida is a +140 underdog (bet $100 to win $140). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Bermudez at -185 and Guida at +145, and so far the action has mainly been on the dog Guida. I like Bermudez a lot in this fight and I’m surprised the line isn’t higher in his favor as I fully expect him to win. Here’s why. Bermudez (13-3) was a contestant on TUF season 14 and has since achieve great things in the UFC, going 6-1 overall with wins over Jimy Hettes, Steven Siler, Max Holloway, Matt Grice, Tommy Hayden and Pablo Garza and his only loss coming to Diego Brandao in the TUF 14 featherweight final. The 27-year-old American is an incredibly-powerful wrestler who is capable of delivering thunderous slams to his opponents. He also has improved striking and he has a decent submission game as well. Prior to the UFC Bermudez had a huge problem in giving up his back to his opponents, but he’s worked on his submission defence and overall it’s held up in the UFC. Bermudez is quickly rising up the featherweight ranks but needs that one key win on his resume and if he gets by Guida this weekend, he will jump into the elite of the UFC featherweight division. Guida (31-14) is one of the top-ranked featherweights in the UFC. The 32-year-old American is 2-1 since dropping down to 145lbs with wins over Tatsuya Kawajiri and Hatsu Hioki and his only loss coming to Chad Mendes. He used to fight at 155lbs and he has a number of key wins over top lightweights including Anthony Pettis, Josh Thomson, Rafael dos Anjos and Nate Diaz on his resume. Guida’s main strength is ability to keep a frenetic pace and never slow down. He probably has the best cardio of any fighter in the UFC, and that’s saying a lot. He has a grinding wrestling style that is hard to figure out, and he also has one of the most proven chins in the division. However, the signs of a decline for Guida are there and the knockout loss to Mendes makes it scary to back him anymore. Although Guida is deserving of his top-10 rank at 145lbs, he doesn’t have much momentum coming into this bout and against a guy who is up-and-coming like Bermudez, it makes sense he is the underdog. I believe Guida is going to have a hard time taking Bermudez down and although he may tire Bermudez out with his frenetic pace, I don’t think it will matter as I believe Bermudez will get the better of the exchanges on the feet and outpoint Guida en route to a decision win. At -160, Bermudez looks to be one of the better bets on the card as I believe he should be at least a 2-to-1 favorite here and I see enough value at the current line for a bet.
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