UFC on FOX 12 Date: July 26, 2014 Arena: SAP Center City: San Jose, CA UFC on FOX 12 will be live from San Jose, CA on Saturday at 8pm ET on FOX with a four fight main card to be headlined by a five round welterweight contest between Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown, which will determine the number one contender for the division’s title. Preceding the main card will be a four-fight preliminary card starting at 6pm ET on FOX, with four fights kicking things off before it at 4:15pm ET on UFC Fight Pass. If interested in wagering on these props, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My prop plays UFC Fight Night 46 in Dublin are: Welterweight bout: Matt Brown (+300) vs Robbie Lawler (-360) Lawler Inside the Distance (-185) 1.85 to win 1u Fight Won’t Start Round Four (-195) 1.95u to win 1u I favor Lawler to be victorious in this five round main event match-up, ultimately earning a rematch against Johny Hendricks and his welterweight title. I like Lawler’s chances of ending this fight within 2.5 rounds, and don’t really see him losing. Brown packs power, but I don’t think he will be able to finish the tough and durable American Top Team product in Lawler. Should this fight hit the judges’ scorecards, I expect Lawler to pick up a convincing unanimous decision, but I feel as though he will be ending this fight on the feet, leaving the judges’ completely out of it. Light Heavyweight bout: Anthony Johnson vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-170) 1.7u to win 1u Johnson Inside the Distance (-130) 1.3u to win 1u Fight Won’t Start Round Three (-125) 1.25u to win 1u Coming off a unanimous decision victory over Phil Davis in his 205-pound debut inside the Octagon, I feel “Rumble” is going to make it two in a row on Saturday night, and this time, even in more impressive fashion. I think he is going to manage to finish the very hard to finish Brazilian, which will be a huge feather in his cap and put him one step closer to title contention. In my opinion, the only chance “Little Nog” has of winning this fight is by catching Johnson on the mat with a submission, so a Nogueira by Submission prop might be worth a hedge at +1250, if you’re backing Johnson, but I don’t see this fight hitting the mat. That said, if guys like Josh Koscheck and Vitor Belfort have previously submitted Johnson, it will be no surprise if “Little Nog” does, and while I personally won’t be making that bet, I think there is value in that line. I think “Rumble” will manage to keep this fight on the feet and stop the Brazilian with strikes within the first two rounds of action, likely in the first. “Little Nog” is a solid boxer, but I think Johnson’s power, speed and aggression will prove to be too much for him. Light Heavyweight bout: Kyle Kingsbury (+125) vs Patrick Cummins (-145) Cummins by Decision (+225) 1u to win 2.25 Fight Goes to Decision (-110) 1.1u to win 1u They both have solid wrestling skills, but I think Cummins is the better wrestler and his superior wrestling will be the difference in this fight, as I see him using takedowns and time spent in top control to seal rounds on the judges’ scorecards en route to a unanimous decision victory. Kingsbury’s coming off a very long layoff, so I expect ring rust to play a factor for him in this match-up, as well. Cummins has really dedicated himself to the sport of mixed martial arts ever since getting the call from the UFC; he came up short in a mismatch against current 205-pound title challenger Daniel Cormier, but bounced back strongly with a second round TKO win over promotional newcomer Roger Narvaez. He will now be looking to make it two in a row inside the Octagon, and I think Kingsbury is a good opponent for him to achieve that goal against. “Kingsbu” is tough, so I don’t expect Cummins to score his second consecutive stoppage in this fight. Featherweight bout: Steven Siler (-255) vs Noad Lahat (+215) Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (+135) 1u to win 1.35u Siler Inside the Distance (+240) .5u to win 1.2u Both of these 145-pounders are finishers who own a combined 19 out of 30 victories which came inside the distance. I expect these two to really go at it on Saturday night, as they seek to redeem themselves following their latest knockout losses and get themselves back on the win column. I could see a finish coming at any moment in this fight, be it the first 10 seconds of round one or the final 10 seconds of round three. For that reason, I think the Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision prop is a safer play than the Under 2.5 rounds prop.
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