One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 46 is a three-round light heavyweight bout between Nikita “Al Capone” Krylov and Cody “Donnybrook” Donovan. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Krylov as a -110 favorite (bet $110 to win $100) while Donovan is also a -110 favorite (bet $110 to win $100) in this Pick ’em fight. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Krylov at -140 and Donovan at +110, and there has been some action on Donovan as the lines have tightened. This is a close fight but I am leaning towards Krylov to get the win. Here’s why. Krylov (16-4) is one of the youngest fighters in the UFC at only 22 years of age and this is already his fourth fight in the organization. The Ukrainian is 1-2 overall in the Octagon with losses to Soa Palelei and Ovince St-Preux and a win over Walt Harris. He was previously fighting at heavyweight but finally dropped down to 205 where he should have been all along and lost in a minute to St-Preux. It was a disappointing loss for Krylov, but he is young and still has potential. He is a solid striker with good knockout power and on the ground he has some nice submissions. However, while he is talented offensively he is awful defensively, especially on the ground, and his holes in his sub D are the reason why he isn’t getting much respect in this fight against Donovan, who is good on the ground. If the fight stays standing Krylov can win but if it goes to the mat it’s going to be a sweat, so anyone backing Krylov must be weary of that. Donovan (8-4) is 1-2 in the UFC with a win over Nick Penner and losses to Gian Villante and Ovince St-Preux. The 33-year-old American has solid standup skills to go along with a nice ground game, and he trains at a good camp at Grudge Training Center. However, he has poor cardio and even worse, his chin is amongst the shakiest in the entire division. In only 12 career fights Donovan has been TKOed four times, which is scary going up against a powerful striker in Krylov. Although Donovan does have a good ground game, his wrestling isn’t all that great, although it could be good enough to take Krylov down. If he stands and bangs like he did against Villante, Donovan is most likely going to get KOed, but if he gets the takedowns he will make this interesting and could pull off the W. Donovan has a lot of skills both standing and on the mat but unfortunately for him he does not have a good chin. Although I do think Donovan can have success in this matchup if he fights to the best of his abilities, I just think Krylov is going to connect on that chin and get the finish for his second UFC knockout victory. He is cheap at -110 and could potentially be worth a play here should be hit plus money, but the best bet here is the UNDER 1.5 rounds total at -175 because this fight most likely ends in the first round either way.
