The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 46 is a three-round welterweight bout between Gunnar “Gunni” Nelson and Zak Cummings. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Nelson as a -540 favorite (bet $540 to win $100) while Cummings is a +460 underdog (bet $100 to win $460). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Nelson at -505 and Cummings at +335, and there has been slight action on Nelson as the lines have tightened. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more action on Nelson, who I believe will win this fight. Here’s why. Nelson (12-0-1) is one of the top prospects at 170lbs. The 25-year-old Icelander is 3-0 in the UFC with wins over Omari Akhmedov, DaMarques Johnson and Jorge Santiago. He is absolutely amazing on the ground, having scored eight career sub wins, and he is also a fantastic, awkward striker who uses his Karate the same way that Lyoto Machida does to stalk his opponents and confuse them. And although he is a small 170lber, he has excellent takedown ability due to his fantastic technique and always seems to get his fights to the floor. Nelson has all the makings of a future champ but injuries have kept him out of action for long periods of time since entering the UFC. He is finally back though and takes on Cummings in a fight that is designed for him to get the W and continue moving up the ladder, and that’s more than likely what’s going to happen. Cummings (17-3) is a very well-rounded and underrated fighter. The 29-year-old American was on TUF 16 and flamed out on the show, losing to Dylan Andrews, but he’s looked great since being signed by the UFC, going 2-0 with wins over Yan Cabral and Ben Alloway. Cummings has decent standup skills but his grappling is by far his best quality. He is absolutely fantastic on the ground, having scored nine career submission wins, and makes a bad matchup for most based on his ability to be the one in top position. He was a massive underdog against Cabral but showed tremendous wrestling, submission defence, cardio and ground and pound and those skills make him an interesting matchup for Nelson. However, no one seems to believe in Cummings and he enters a UFC fight as a big underdog once again. Cummings is an underrated fighter but Nelson is an elite prospect and a future champion in the weight class. Cummings may be able to stop some takedowns, but not all. I think Nelson is going to find a way to get this to the mat and latch on the submission for the win. And if for whatever reason it does stay standing, I think Nelson is the better striker and can win there too. Either way, he should get the nod here in impressive fashion. He is pricey at -540, but it’s hard to fault anyone who wants to put him in a parlay to boost their odds, even at the high price.
