The main event of UFC Fight Night 46 is a five-round featherweight bout between Conor “The Notorious” McGregor and Diego “DB” Brandao. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists McGregor as a -450 favorite (bet $450 to win $100) while Brandao is a +400 underdog (bet $100 to win $400). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up McGregor at -385 and Brandao at +265, meaning there has been quite a bit of action on McGregor. I agree with the action on McGregor as I’m picking him to win this fight in impressive fashion. Here’s why. McGregor (14-2) is an emerging superstar for the UFC. The Irishman is 2-0 so far inside the Octagon with wins over Marcus Brimage and Max Holloway but he hasn’t fought in a year since injuring his knee in the Holloway fight and having surgery on it. Now healthy, the Irishman McGregor plans to make a run for the title at 145lbs. He is only 25 and keeps improving. He has excellent standup sills and brutal knockout power in both his hands and feet. He also is extremely long at 145lbs, which makes him difficult for his opponents to hit. For someone who never grew up wrestling McGregor sure has great wrestling, and he has some nasty ground and pound. The only flaws he’s shown so far in his career are in his submission defence, but he has worked hard to improve that. The UFC originally had him set to fight Cole Miller in the main event but Miller pulled out and was replaced by Brandao, a good fighter but someone who McGregor should defeat in impressive fashion, which is why he is the favorite here. Brandao (18-9) won The Ultimate Fighter season 14 and has since posted a 4-2 record in the UFC with wins over Dennis Bermudez, Daniel Pineda, Pablo Garza and Joey Gambino and with his only losses coming to Darren Elkins and Dustin Poirier. Just 27 years old, the Brazilian is an extremely dangerous and aggressive fighter. He has knockout power in both his hands and feet and he also has devastating finishing ability on the ground. He has underrated wrestling as well. However, his striking defence is awful and he does not have a good chin, and he doesn’t have good cardio either. He’s extremely dangerous in the first round but outside of the first he tends to fade and fade badly. He has a chance of beating McGregor here, but it’s only a small chance, and that’s why he’s such a big underdog. This is going to be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts. I expect there to be some early heavy striking exchanges and for both fighters to taste each other’s power, but eventually I expect McGregor to land the knockout blow on Brandao and continue to emerge as a superstar for the UFC. McGregor is a massive favorite at -450 and that should be safe for parlays but the better bet is the fight doesn’t go the distance at the same price, -450. There is a slight chance McGregor could get submitted so that prop offers protection just in case Brandao earns the upset, and again, it’s the exact same price as the McGregor moneyline. Either way, this fight will NOT go the distance.
