UFC on FOX 12 Date: July 26, 2014 Arena: SAP Center City: San Jose, CA UFC on FOX 12 will be live from San Jose, CA on Saturday at 8pm ET on FOX with a four-fight main card to be headlined by a five round welterweight contest between Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown, which will determine the number one contender for the division’s title. Preceding the main card will be a four-fight preliminary card starting at 6pm ET on FOX, with four fights kicking things off before it at 4:15pm ET on UFC Fight Pass. If interested in making this parlay, or wagering on any fights or props for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. Here is my three–way main card card parlay for UFC on FOX 12… Light Heavyweight bout: Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (-550) vs “Little Nog” Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+425) Gabe’s Thoughts: Coming off a unanimous decision victory over Phil Davis in his 205-pound debut inside the Octagon, I feel “Rumble” is going to make it two in a row on Saturday night, and this time, even in more impressive fashion. I think he is going to manage to finish the very hard to finish Brazilian, which will be a huge feather in his cap and put him one step closer to title contention. In my opinion, the only chance “Little Nog” has of winning this fight is by catching Johnson on the mat with a submission, so a Nogueira by Submission prop might be worth a hedge at +1250, if you’re backing Johnson, but I don’t see this fight hitting the mat. That said, if guys like Josh Koscheck and Vitor Belfort have previously submitted Johnson, it will be no surprise if “Little Nog” does, and while I personally won’t be making that bet, I think there is value in that line. I think “Rumble” will manage to keep this fight on the feet and stop the Brazilian with strikes within the first two rounds of action, likely in the first. “Little Nog” is a solid boxer, but I think Johnson’s power, speed and aggression will prove to be too much for him. Gabe’s Call: Johnson by TKO (strikes, 1:34 round 1) Featherweight bout: Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (+135) vs Dennis “The Menace” Bermudez (-155) Gabe’s Thoughts: Both of these featherweights are very tough, durable and from wrestling backgrounds. I believe these two will battle it out for three rounds of action much more often than not, so I really favor this fight hitting the judges’ scorecards. I expect this fight to be competitive and could see either 145-pounder getting his hand raised, but I lean with Bermudez, as he is the younger fighter and will have the edge on the feet. I am expecting a close fight and think we are in for a split decision. Rather than siding with either fighter, I like the over 2.5 rounds for a parlay piece here, even at the creeping price of -350. Gabe’s Call: Bermudez by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Lightweight bout: Bobby “King” Green (+215) vs Josh “The Punk” Thomson (-255) Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Thomson’s wrestling will be the difference in this match-up. I think he will manage to take Green to the mat and secure rounds there. I could see a finish coming in this fight, but I think these Strikeforce veterans will go at it for all 15 minutes of action more often than not. Thomson is the superior mixed martial artist, so I think he will get the better of Green for three rounds of action en route to a unanimous decision victory. It could be a close decision or it could be quite a convincing one, but either way, I see “The Punk” getting his hand raised on Saturday night. Green is always a game opponent, though, and I would not be surprised to see him pull off the upset, much like he did in come-from-behind fashion in his promotional debut against Jacob Volkmann, a fight in which he was a heavy underdog heading in. I favor Thomson to win this bout, but I think there is more value in the over 2.5 prop at -195 than there is in playing Thomson at -255, so I will be siding with the total here for this parlay. Gabe’s Call: Thomson by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Johnson (-550) parlayed with Guida/Bermudez Over 2.5 rounds (-350) and Green/Thomson Over 2.5 rounds (-195) for +129 3.2u to win 4.15u
