The opening main card bout at UFC Fight Night 45 is a three-round featherweight bout between Alex “The Spartan” White and Lucas “Mineiro” Martins. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists White as a -160 favorite (bet $160 to win $100) while Martins is a +140 underdog (bet $100 to win $140). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up White at -155 and Martins at +115, meaning the public likes White in the matchup. I agree with the public here as I’m also picking White to win the fight. Here’s why. White (10-0) is a lethal striker who made his UFC debut earlier this year, knocking out Estevan Payan in brutal fashion at UFC on FOX 11. Just 25 years of age, White is undefeated in MMA and keeps improving every fight. On top of his striking, he also has underrated submissions and grappling in general. He is a tough guy who is young and who has dedicated his life to the sport of MMA. He hasn’t fought great competition yet, and he’s still a bit raw, but he looks like a guy who has a lot of potential and the UFC seems high on him, giving him a main card slot at UFC Fight Night 45. And if he emerges with his hand raised, he could be in store for a big step up his next time out. Martins (14-1) is a solid striker who has looked pretty good in the UFC, going 2-1 with wins over Ramiro Hernadez and Jeremy Larsen and with his only loss coming to Edson Barboza. The 25-year-old Brazilian has a wicked muay Thai attack that has seen him pick up nine wins by T/KO, and he also has underrated submissions, having won four fights via sub. He is a solid offensive fighter but defensively he is flawed and his chin is not very good. He definitely has potential, but if doesn’t stop getting hit so much he won’t go far in this sport, and going up against another lethal striker in White, it makes sense he is the underdog here. I believe White and Martins will throw some heavy exchanges in the first round, with White getting the better of them and knocking Martins out to continue his ascent up the UFC featherweight division ladder. I think White wins this fight but I believe there’s better spots on the card for a bet and think it’s better to pass at -160. If the line gets down closer to a Pick ’em, though, I think it could be worth a shot but -160 seems a bit steep. If anything, the prop on White by T/KO at +300 has some good value as that’s likely the method he wins this fight by.
