UFC Fight Night 45 Date: July 16, 2014 Arena: Revel Casino Hotel City: Atlantic City, NJ Lightweight bout: Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (-270) vs Jim Miller (+230) Fight Breakdown: The main event for UFC Fight Night 45 in Atlantic City will be a lightweight war between New Mexico’s Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone” and New Jersey’s own Jim Miller, with Cerrone being the favorite to win at -270 ($270 to win $100) and Miller being the betting underdog at +230 ($100 to win $230) at Several Bookmakerss. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (23-6-1 NC MMA, 8-2 UFC) is coming off a first round rear naked choke submission victory against Edson Barboza at UFC on FOX 11 just three months ago and now enjoys an impressive three-fight winning streak, with all wins coming inside the distance. “Cowboy” is an excellent striker with great footwork and head movement, not to mention speed. He mixes it up well on the feet, implementing all four limbs as well as elbows and knees into his offensive attack. Cerrone has an incredible kicking game. He works hard leg kicks, as well as solid head and body kicks. He is also very effective from inside the clinch. It is worth noting that “Cowboy” fights best when he is moving forward, being the aggressor, and is not as effective when moving backwards. The 31-year old is incredibly talented on the mat, as well, having an excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game. He is a serious threat from both top and bottom positions. Cerrone loves to choke his opponents out; the triangle choke is his favorite submission to go for, so he definitely does not mind being on his back, as it gives him an opportunity to secure his favorite finish. The WEC veteran has a great chin and his cardio is top notch, especially considering he trains in high altitude at Jackson-Winklejohn MMA in Albuquerque, NM. I expect him to be ready for 25 minutes of action against Miller in the Jersey-native’s own backyard, should the fight reach the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Jim Miller (24-4-1 NC MMA, 13-3-1 NC UFC) is currently on a four-fight undefeated streak, coming off a first round guillotine choke submission victory over the Hawaiian Yancy Medeiros at UFC 176 just a couple of months ago. Like Cerrone, Miller will be making an immediate turnaround in this match-up, except he will have the hometown edge heading into this one. This will be his 10th fight in Atlantic City, though it will be the first since signing with the UFC over six years ago. The New Jersey native has solid wrestling and exceptional Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, owning a black belt in the sport, and having submitted other high level black belts, such as Charles Oliveira and Fabricio Camoes. He is very dangerous on the mat, both offensively and defensively, so opponents are always in danger when in his guard, as was the case in the Camoes bout. Miller has rudimentary striking, even though he does possess a black belt in Tae Kwon Do. He has been slightly improving his stand-up, but he will undoubtedly be at a disadvantage on the feet heading into this scrap against Cerrone . The southpaw works an okay jab, has a decent right hook and a nice straight left. He works nice inside leg kicks and likes to go low with them. The 30-year old puts together some decent 1-2 combinations, and likes to pressure his opponents against the cage, a position where he loves to employ his heavy elbows. Training out of AMA Fight Club in Whippany, NJ under the tutelage of Mike Constantino, Miller is generally well-conditioned, so with a full training camp, he should have enough in the tank for five rounds of action, though that is no guarantee. Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, I expect “Cowboy” to keep this fight on the feet, where he holds a major advantage over Miller. Over the course of five rounds, I think he will manage to find a stoppage, and my best guess is that he finds one early. Gabe’s Call: Cerrone by TKO (strikes, 3:34 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Donald Cerrone (-270) parlayed with Edson Barboza (-260) for -112 4.85u to win 4.35u
