For the first time since January 2009, the UFC will be heading to the O2 Arena in Dublin, Ireland when UFC Fight Night 46 goes down on Saturday night. The event is headlined by the greatest hope Ireland has seen for a UFC title, Conor McGregor, as he takes on late replacement Diego Brandao. The event also features a host of British and European talent, as fighters like Gunnar Nelson, Brad Pickett and TUF Smashes winner Norman Parke all find themselves on the main card as well. The entire card will be airing on UFC Fight Pass, with the prelims beginning at 12:30pm ET and the main card starting at 3pm ET. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for UFC Fight Night 46 today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 3pm ET) Conor McGregor -385 Diego Brandao +265 Gunnar Nelson -505 Zak Cummings +335 Ian McCall -140 Brad Pickett +100 Norman Parke -315 Naoyuki Kotani +235 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 12:30pm ET) Ilir Latifi -245 Chris Dempsey +175 Neil Seery -140 Phil Harris +100 Cathal Pendred -215 Mike King +165 Tor Troeng -260 Trevor Smith +180 Nikita Krylov -140 Cody Donovan +100 Josh Sampo -260 Patrick Holohan +180 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Because all ten lines are being released at the same time, I’m going to keep the thoughts brief. Conor McGregor has a striking advantage over Diego Brandao, but I feel like he’s priced a bit too high here, given the fact that Brandao is very dangerous with his submission game, especially in the early rounds of fights. I do expect McGregor to come through, especially with the support of the home crowd, but his long layoff is enough to give me pause about betting him. Conversely, Gunnar Nelson seems to hold advantages everywhere against Zak Cummings. Cummings won his last fight as a large underdog because he was able to outlast Yan Cabral, but I don’t foresee him being able to do the same with Nelson, who has an edge on the feet and on the ground, although if Cummings does have one stronger area, it may be the wrestling. Still, Nelson should have enough going for him to pick up the win. Cummings is probably being undervalued once again, but I can’t recommend betting him in this matchup. Once again, a flyweight bout is amongst the most intriguing on the card, and given the recent injury to John Dodson it could have title implications as well. Pickett did not look good in his flyweight debut, and pulled out the victory because he had a massive wrestling advantage over Neil Seery. He doesn’t have that here against McCall, nor will he necessarily have a striking advantage. We’ve seen with bantamweights dropping to flyweight that speed can be a detriment to their success, and I feel like McCall may just be a bit too fast for the defensively deficient Pickett. At a pick em price or better, I like McCall for a bet here. Naoyuki Kotani has experienced a renaissance of sorts since his last stint in the UFC, winning 13 straight bouts, including 11 by stoppage. Kotani’s competition hasn’t been a particularly high level however, so it’s going to be interesting to see how he deals with a fighter of Parke’s caliber. Parke hasn’t necessarily faced the best fighters himself, but he has the game to negate Kotani’s strength, his submissions. Parke should not be a massive favorite here though, so I can’t bet him. Ilir Latifi is going to be much bigger and stronger than Chris Dempsey, as well as having a wrestling advantage. Dempsey may have a slight cardio edge, but with a full camp for the Swede and short notice for the American, I can’t see that making a difference. Anywhere under 2-to-1 and I think Latifi can be used in parlays. Neil Seery has shaky takedown defense, but he should be able to keep distance and land strikes almost at will against Phil Harris. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Harris get hurt to the body in some fashion and for Seery to get a finish, and he should have extra motivation fighting in Dublin again. If this trickles down close to even money, it could be worth a shot. Another Irish fighter looks to make the hometown fans cheer, as Cathal Pendred makes his UFC debut against fellow TUF castmate Mike King. King showed some decent skills on the show, while Pendred didn’t impress as much as many expected him to, but I expect to see the same Pendred who wasn’t necessarily exciting, but was very effective during his Cage Warriors run. Over 2-to-1 is too much to pay for a fairly one-dimensional fighter, but I’m still picking him. Trevor Smith’s chin and cardio issues always make it difficult to pick him in fights, and against Tor Troeng I expect that if he doesn’t get the early finish (and I don’t think he will), Tor will take over late in the bout and likely find a finish of his own. I don’t see either of these fighters being long for the UFC. Krylov’s ground game is downright atrocious, and Donovan’s chin and striking defense are just as bad. If Donovan gets a takedown, he wins. If not, he still has a chance, but he probably gets knocked out. Do yourself a favor and don’t trust either of these guys with your money. Patrick Holohan has a pretty decent submission game, but he’s never faced a wrestler or grappler the likes of Josh Sampo. The prevailing opinion in MMA is that you don’t trust a fighter who has to cross the English Channel to get to mainland Europe when he’s fighting a good wrestler, and I think that holds true here. Some of the European books had this line much closer, and Sampo is definitely worth a bet at those lines, but -260 is high enough to limit me to a small parlay if anything.
