UFC Fight Night 45 July 16, 2014 Lightweight Matchup: Edson Barboza vs Evan Dunham By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics Big Picture: The co-main event from Atlantic City features two men coming off submission losses to Donald Cerrone, when Edson Barboza faces Evan Dunham. This will provide for plenty of awkward moments backstage, as Cerrone himself is headlining the card. The 13th-ranked Barboza is the favorite at -245, with the comeback on the underdog Dunham +205. Both guys are a few fights away from contention, but each are within the realm of possibility of getting there one day. So a solid performance for either man will put them on that path. Let’s see how they matchup along their performance metrics, shall we? Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The Tale of Tape shows that Barboza has a huge reach advantage of five inches, and a noteworthy Youth Advantage of four years. On the other side of the tape, Dunham will have the stance advantage coming out Southpaw. Overall, the lean here is for Barboza, and Youth and Reach go a long way. We can expect however, a little more hesitancy in facing the Southpaw, and perhaps a slightly looser defense against a left-handed striker. Striking Matchup: This is where Barboza likes to keep every one of his fights, and facing a BJJ black belt in this matchup makes it even more of the place to be for him. Don’t let the check marks on the right side fool you – Dunham’s performance advantages are slight and mainly due to a high-volume but less dangerous style that likely won’t be available given the reach disadvantage. Barboza’s success in striking at a distance stems from his kicks. He has nasty kicks. Really nasty. In fact, Barboza has TKO stoppages by leg kicks, which is almost unheard of in UFC (it’s happened only 8 times), and yet he’s done it twice! He also has one of the most famous highlights in UFC history thanks to a perfectly timed spinning head kick KO of Terry Etim. To say that Barboza is a dangerous striker is an understatement. He is actually one of the most dangerous strikers in UFC history, something I once calculated just to be sure. That said, he’s also susceptible. Not only has he suffered a few knockdowns, he’s also been wobbled without going down. Twice in defeat he was dropped, and once against Danny Castillo has was knocked down but rallied to win the last two rounds. That’s two fights in a row where his opponent hurt him, and less than three months since his last concussion. With head strike avoidance that is a bit below average, Barboza’s chin rating is also lower than Dunham’s. So while Barboza is the more dangerous of the two with his power, he may also be the slightly more susceptible one. That means although Dunham will be at a big reach disadvantage that should allow Barboza to control the range and fire off a variety of kicks and spinning attacks, Dunham is still only one punch away from flipping the tables. It’s a small probability outcome that Dunham gets a knockdown given his own power rating, but it adds fuel to a potential finish. Grappling Matchup: The ground game could favor the pedigree of Dunham’s submission game. The problem will be getting the fight there. Barboza is no stranger to takedown attempts from opponents, who have attempted six times as many takedowns against him as he has himself. Yet with a takedown defense of 83%, he’s been twice as good at avoiding being put on his back than the average fighter, and has managed to stay standing at a distance for 82% of this Octagon time (also well above average). Dunham’s takedowns attempts come at roughly an average clip, with a success rate just below average. The combination of these factors suggests Barboza should be able to spend most of the fight on his feet, and therefore winning the exchanges at long-range. Should the fight somehow end up on the ground, Dunham does have a history of submission attempts-unlike Barboza who only has one attempt in his UFC career. However, the success rate for Dunham is a paltry 8%. Despite Barboza’s recent submission loss (which was mianly set up by a knockdown), the ground game should be a stalemate that would only favor Dunham’s wrestling to steal a round. Reed’s Pick: Barboza by TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: The odds clearly favor the higher ranked fighter here, and I’m in agreement. Barboza should keep this standing, and the longer the fight goes the more his kicks will take effect. Barboza straight up is a reasonable pick, as he could take a decision or TKO victory, and should be able to stay away from Dunham’s submissions. Predicting the finish is tricky business, especially at the reduced rounds total of 1.5 rounds. While the +160 price for an Under 1.5 round fight is tempting given Barboza’s offensive weaponry, I do urge some caution in that he can sometimes take a lot of time to set up the perfect fight-ending strike. Closer to fight time consider a smaller prop play on Fight Does Not Go the Distance that hedges Barboza’s vulnerable chin, and also allows him more time accumulate damage one way or the other on Dunham for an eventual stoppage. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis.