In a very smart move, World Series of Fighting will be airing their Saturday event in the afternoon to avoid going head-to-head with UFC 175 this weekend. The event will be one of the biggest in the promotion’s short history as it the first to air on NBC — rather than NBC Sports Network — and it actually features two home-grown talents in the main event, something that has been hard to come by for the organization. That main event is between Justin Gaethje and Nick Newell, and it is intriguing as it features one of the best prospects in MMA in Gaethje, and one of the sport’s most heart-warming stories in Newell. Aside from the narratives in the fight, the style clash is somewhat interesting as well, as Gaethje employs a pure power game with both his striking and his wrestling, while Newell is all about using his seeming disadvantage — his congenital amputation — to find and lock in slick submissions. The remainder of the card features a host of recognizable names, as Jon Fitch and Dennis Hallman square off in the co-main event, while JZ Cavalcante and Melvin Guillard could determine the next challenger for the winner of the main event. Cody Bollinger of TUF infamy finds himself in the opening bout of the card as well, against Pablo Alfonso who is best known for beating Miguel Torres. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for WSOF 11 today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (NBC, 4pm ET) WSOF Lightweight Title Justin Gaethje -735 Nick Newell +445 Jon Fitch -385 Dennis Hallman +265 Melvin Guillard -260 Gesias Cavalcante +180 Cody Bollinger -280 Pablo Alfonso +200 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: As interesting as the Gaethje/Newell bout is, it’s also not shaping up to be a competitive one. At some point Newell was going to reach a level of competition where his physical limitations would become a big deal, and this is it. Any fighter who has good takedown defense and good striking was always going to be a problem for Newell, and Gaethje is great in both areas with devastating striking power. Gaethje will stuff the early takedowns and start to land big on the feet, at which point we’ll see what kind of chin Newell has, and there aren’t too many people who can survive Gaethje’s power. Fitch/Hallman seems like a bit of a mismatch as Hallman is a smaller fighter, worse wrestler and almost as depleted as Fitch. Fitch’s big problems lately have been his chin, and when facing bigger fighters who can stick with him in the strength department. Hallman doesn’t present either problem and Fitch should be able to grind him out. Guillard/Cavalcante isn’t a bout I’m particularly interested in betting as both guys can be flaky and we haven’t seen great performances from either lately. If Guillard is focused, he should win, but he could still get rocked at any time or jump into a sub, so I find it really hard to trust him even though I’m picking him. Pablo Alfonso has a win over Miguel Torres, but beating the 2013 version of Torres doesn’t carry any weight with me. Bollinger is the better striker and wrestler here, so as long as he comes in prepared he should pick up his second WSOF win in as many outings. Again a fight I’m not too interested in betting, but the favorite should come through.
