One of the prelims at UFC 175 is a three-round middleweight match between Chris Camozzi and Bruno Santos. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Camozzi as a -255 favorite (bet $255 to win $100) while Santos is a +215 underdog (bet $100 to win $215). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Camozzi at -260 and Santos at +180, meaning there has been little betting action on the bout as the lines have tightened. I think the line is just about right so I understand the lack of betting action here, but of course I am picking the favorite Camozzi to get the win. Here’s why. Camozzi (19-7) was on TUF season 11 and has so far carved out a nice career for himself in the UFC, going 6-4 overall with wins over Nick Ring, Luiz Cane, Nick Catone, Dustin Jacoby, Dongi Yang and James Hammortree and losses to Lorenz Larkin, Jacare Souza, Francis Carmont, and Kyle Noke. Just 27 years of age, Camozzi is riding a two-fight losing streak at the moment and desperately needs a win to save his UFC career. An improving talent, Camozzi exhibits strong takedown defence and on the feet he is a very capable kickboxer who throws nice punches and kicks in combinations. He also has some underrated knees, and his cardio is very good as well. His chin is iron too. He’s overall just a very solid mixed martial artist and a solid middleweight gatekeeper. He is taking on Santos this weekend and it’s a fight that should favor him stylistically as he should be able to keep the fight standing and outpoint his opponent, but if he does get taken down who knows what the judges will say. Santos (13-1) has had only one fight in the UFC, losing a close decision to Krzysztof Jotko last December. The 26 year old has not fought since then, but after taking some time off to work on his game and improve the UFC has booked him to fight Camozzi this weekend at UFC 175. It’s a must-win fight for Santos because he did not look good in his UFC debut and he is not an exciting fight. He is basically a grinder with little-to-no finishing ability and he has bored crowds to tears in the past, which is why I am surprised the UFC brought him into the promotion in the first place. The only way he beats Camozzi is if he can take him down and win on points or possibly push Camozzi against the fence, but doing that for three rounds against a tough guy with good cardio like Camozzi will be difficult, and that’s why he’s the dog in this matchup. I believe Camozzi should be able to stop Santos’ takedown attempts, keep the fight standing, and outstrike his opponent en route to a decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Although I do think Camozzi wins this fight, there doesn’t seem to be value at -255 and I think it’s better just to pass as I believe this is a fight that goes the three rounds and the judges could blow it if Santos gets some takedowns. That’s why I favor OVER 2.5 rounds a bit more. It’s -240, but I think it’s a safer option that the Camozzi moneyline, and I think it could be a nice piece in a two-team parlay.
