UFC Fight Night 42 Date: June 7, 2014 Arena: Tingley Coliseum City: Albuquerque, NM UFC Fight Night 42 will be live from the Tingley Coliseum for the first time in Albuquerque, New Mexico, tomorrow night on FOX Sports 1 starting at 10pm ET with preliminary action kicking off at 8pm ET. UFC Fight Night 42 comes to us with 11 scheduled bouts, including a six-fight main card that features lighter weight fighters from top to bottom. If interested in wagering on the props suggested in this article, or any other props or wagers for this card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for UFC Fight Night 42 are: Lightweight bout: Benson Henderson (-250) vs Rustam Khabilov (+210) Henderson by Submission (+450) 1u to win 4.5u Khabilov by Submission (+1145) .2u to win 2.29u I think this fight has a good chance of ending inside the distance, most likely in the form of submission, and even more likely by Henderson. However, I would not be surprised if the Dagestani caught the former 155-pound champ, either, so I see value in him for a hedge. There is a slim chance it could come via T/KO, but I think that chance is very, very unlikely. These submission props are where I believe most of the value is. I think the chances of one of these fighters winning via submission are near-equal to the chances of one of them winning by decision, so if the decision props on them offered a similar return, while these submission props offered less, I would be betting the decision props instead. That isn’t the case, though. In this situation, I feel the value is with these submission props. Lightweight bout: Diego Sanchez (+160) vs Ross Pearson (-185) Sanchez Inside the Distsnce (+485) 1u to win 4.85u Sanchez in Round Three (+2175) .2u to win 4.35u Pearson has a speed, and technical striking advantage over Sanchez. That’s about it. I feel this is Sanchez’s fight to lose, and favor him to win it. For a full write-up, check out my fight article for this lightweight scrap. Lightweight bout: Jason High (+250) vs Rafael dos Anjos (-300) High +3.5 (+135) 1u to win 1.35u I think High has a good chance of straight up winning this fight, and an even better chance of winning at least one out of three rounds. For a full write-up on this bout, I refer you to my fight article. Update: In my article, I picked dos Anjos to win via split decision, but I am now leaning with High to take the decision in an upset. For a full write-up on this bout, please refer to my fight article. Bantamweight bout: Bryan Caraway (-105) vs Erik Perez (-115) Caraway by Submission (+445) 1u to win 4.45u Caraway in Round Three (+1600) .25u to win 4u Simply put, I think there is value in these lines, so I am making a move on them. Perez is no slouch on the mat, but I think Caraway will have the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu advantage when the fight hits there, and will have a pretty good chance of scoring a finish. Bantamweight bout: Sergio Pettis (-525) vs Yaotzin Meza (+415) Pettis Inside the Distance (+145) 1u to win 1.45u Pettis Wins in Round One (+300) .25 to win .75 I believe Pettis is light years better than Meza, regardless of where the fight goes. I think this fight is going to be a walk in the park for him. If he doesn’t earn the stoppage, I think it will be a dominant three rounds for Pettis, but I do favor him to stop Meza. He has a very good chance of finishing this fight both with strikes and submissions. I expect Pettis to get back in the win column with a dominant performance in this bout, and likely a first round finish for the former flyweight. For a full write-up on this bantamweight tilt, please refer to my fight article. Welterweight bout: Bobby Voelker (-130) vs Lance Benoist (+110) Benoist Inside the Distance (+500) .5u to win 2.5u Benoist by Submission (+905) .25u to win 2.26u I think Benoist is an excellent Mixed Martial Artist. That is, when he has his head on his shoulders. He is coming off a 20-month layoff and he did not fight to his potential in his last outing, so there are definitely some question marks surrounding him here. That said, I believe he is the better, more well-rounded fighter, and see a ton of value in these props. Flyweight bout: Danny Martinez (+185) vs Scott Jorgensen (-220) Martinez Inside the Distance (+595) 1u to win 5.95u Jorgensen has been on a real decline and has a diminishing chin. I think there is a good chance Martinez could crack him and put him out. I also think he could score a submission over Jorgensen, which is why I am taking the ITD prop, rather than Martinez by T/KO. If it hits the scorecards, I favor Jorgensen to get his hand raised a lot more often than not, likely due to using his wrestling to earn a decision. However, if the fight ends inside the distance, I think it will be Martinez getting his hand raised, and again, I definitely think there is a good chance of that happening; more than the odds of +595 may suggest.
