UFC Fight Night 42 June 7, 2014 Flyweight Matchup: John Dodson vs John Moraga By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics Big Picture: Among the men who have tried and failed to capture the Flyweight title from reigning champ Demetrious Johnson, two will go head-to-head to maintain their spot on the rematch waiting list. Interestingly, John Dodson has already faced John Moraga once before, but not in the UFC. In his last fight before competing on The Ultimate Fighter Season 14, Dodson defeated Moraga by Unanimous decision at a “Nemesis Fighting” event in the Dominican Republic. Moraga would continue to compete outside the UFC before eventually making a title run, and coming up short against “Mighty Mouse.” Now it’s rematch time. Dodson is currently ranked 1st among challengers in the division and is a heavy favorite at -420, with #5 ranked Moraga the underdog at +335. That’s a steep line, so let’s see if the statline supports it. Summary Stats:
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Tale of Tape Matchup: The Tale of Tape is a virtual dead heat. The one-inch reach differential is insignificant, as is the 6-month difference in age. Both men will come out in an Orthodox stance, so the matchup is a “fair” fight in theory from an anthropometric point of view. But we know there’s no such thing as a truly fair fight, that’s why we’re going to look to the performance stats too. Striking Matchup: On the feet we see a lopsided matchup in the striking metrics favoring Dodson. The “Magician” has performed better in pace, cage control and accuracy, and his Knockdown Rate is impressively higher than even the Heavyweight average. In fact, when I calculated the UFC’s top Knockout Artists a while back, Dodson ranked sixth all-time, and was by far the highest performing UFC Flyweight. And that was before his most recent first-round knockout of Darrell Montague. Don’t let the childish act fool you; for whatever reason, and despite his small size, John Dodson knows how to make people fall down. Although Moraga has shown good avoidance to date, I simply don’t think he’ll be able to stand and trade with Dodson. The longer it stays standing, the more Dodson will dominate the fight and potentially land a strike that could end it early. Dodson nearly put away the champion Johnson early in their title fight, but dropped the later rounds as he slowed down and ended up losing a decision. Clearly Dodson’s striking should be considered elite in the division, but wrestling is a potential hole in his game. That leaves Plan B for Moraga –a high level wrestler from Arizona State University–which is to get this fight to the ground. Grappling Matchup: Moraga’s prior wrestling credentials are solid, but the statline metrics don’t spell out a clear path to a grappling victory. While he is quicker to attempt takedowns than Dodson, Moraga’s success rate is low – typical of former wrestlers who still rely on shooting for takedowns after transitioning to the cage. While Dodson’s offensive wrestling has been worse than Moraga’s, the real key here concerns his grappling defense. Dodson’s takedown defense is an impressive 81 percent, and he’s faced plenty of attempts from opponents who likely didn’t want to test their chins against him. I suspect that, early on, Dodson’s evasiveness and lighting quick movements will keep him at striking range, there is a risk for him later on in the fight to eventually slow down and succumb to Moraga’s grappling if he’s able to continue to mount an attack while avoiding getting knocked out the way Mighty Mouse did. Ultimately though, Moraga is no Demetrious Johnson. Reed’s Pick: Dodson by TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Reed’s Recommended Play: The odds are steep, but we see evidence as to why Dodson might be the biggest favorite of the night. Knowing that Moraga’s best chance to win is by pushing forward to land a takedown, Dodson should be able to use a sprawl and brawl approach to the fight, and potentially catch Moraga on the chin while coming in. The key ingredients for an upset simply aren’t here, so put Dodson in your parlays or play him straight up for a conservative, low return investment. Don’t go crazy if the line continues to move though, as a loss by wrestling is still a possibility, and injuries can and do change fights in an instant. The way Dodson hits, a broken hand is a real wild card risk. But if Dodson wins, you can definitely count on some in-cage acrobatics afterwards. The Under of 2.5 rounds at +150 is riskier, but the likeliest finish is via Dodson’s strikes. Flyweights had a big year of KO’s last year, bucking the trend of smaller fighter’s lacking finishing power and suggesting that at some point speed makes up for size. In his UFC wins so far, Dodson has put away three of four opponents by T/KO finish, but notably did not finish Moraga in their last fight in Nemesis. Still, at plus money an Under suggests decent value since this really is the most likely outcome for the fight, with a Decision win a close second. Moraga has taken a good share of wins by submission, but catching the Jackson-trained Dodson in a choke is unlikely and requires putting him on the ground for an extended period early on. The KO prop on Dodson closer to fight time may return even better value than the Under, so consider splitting your play here between Dodson for the win and a finish by strikes. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon! Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis.