TUF: Brazil 3 Finale Date: May 31, 2014 Arena: Ibirapuera Gymnasium City: Sao Paulo, Brazil The second part of tonight’s double-header will be The TUF: Brazil 3 finale, which will be live on FOX Sports 1, with the main card kicking off at 10:00 pm, preceded by a preliminary card starting at 8pm. The action gets going at 6:30 pm on UFC Fight Pass. If interested in wagering on the props suggested in this article, or any other props or wagers, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 finale are: Fabio Maldonado (+475) vs Stipe Miocic (-555) Miocic -5.5 (-325) 3.25u to win 1u Miocic by Decision (+256) .5u to win 1.28u Miocic is going to use his superior wrestling to dominate the Brazilian. Miocic is not much of a finisher and Maldonado is tough to finish, so I see this fight going all five rounds and Maldonado just being happy that he went five rounds in a UFC main event. Miocic can still pick up an easy win if he chooses to strike with Maldonado, but his wrestling is just worlds better, so if he’s smart, he will exploit that hole in the Brazilian’s game en route to a dominant unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Rashid Magomedov (-295) vs Rodrigo Damm (+265) Magomedov -3.5 (-165) 1.65u to win 1u Magomedov is a former welterweight taking on a former featherweight in this lightweight match-up, so he has the size advantage over the Brazilian heading into the bout. On top of that, I think he is the tougher fighter and the superior mixed martial artist, not to mention how incredible he looks at 155-pounds. If he doesn’t find the finish against Damm, I feel he will be able to win all three rounds on the judges’ scorecards. I am expecting the Dagestani-Russian to earn his second consecutive Octagon victory and look for a step up in competition. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (-155) vs Richardson Moreira (+145) Lima Inside the Distance (+100) 1u to win 1u Moreira has atrocious cardio, so if he does not score an early finish, he is likely going to get stopped in rounds two or three. I believe this is the most likely outcome to this match-up, and at +100, it’s worth a play. Ricardo Abreu (-325) vs Wagner Silva (+275) Fight Goes to Decision (+110) .5u to win .55u Both of these guys are tough and will be coming forward. They will be hurting each other, but I don’t favor a finish. I expect this to be a closely contested bout where both middleweights have their moments. I think they will showcase their skills for 15 minutes of action en route to a judges’ decision, which I slightly favor Abreu to pick up. I think Silva is a live dog, though, and could see things going his way. If Abreu does deserve the call, it could still go the other way, that’s why I am favoring this decision prop at +110 more so than I am favoring Abreu by Decision at +217, even though the return on that is nearly 100% greater. Matt Hobar (+260) vs Pedro Munhoz (-290) Fight Goes to Decision (-120) 1.2u to win 1u Hobar +3.5 (+150) 1u to win 1.5u Not Munhoz Inside the Distance (-164) 1.64u to win 1u Both bantamweights are talented grapplers, so I am expecting that to cancel each other out and for this fight to play out on the feet. I think this fight will be closely contested on the feet, and will more often than not hit the judges’ scorecards. For a full write-up on this bantamweight scrap, I refer you to my fight article for the bout.
