After the UFC takes a ride down the Autobahn on Saturday afternoon, fight fans will have 90 minutes to rest and refuel before the Fight Pass prelims for the TUF Brazil 3 Finale begin. In total, the organization has 20 bouts scheduled for May 31st, and that’s assuming they don’t add any more than the final bouts from this season of TUF Brazil on the card. This event was supposed to be headlined by a heavyweight bout between former champion Junior dos Santos and #7 ranked Stipe Miocic, but after dos Santos got injured Joe Silva had his work cut out for him to find a replacement. It was so difficult in fact, that the organization had to look in another division as light heavyweight Fabio Maldonado will step up to face Miocic. The strange main event is a bit of a window into the rest of the card, which has a rather bizarre make up of bouts. Former title challenger Demian Maia is paired with UFC newcomer Alexander Yakovlev on the main card, while it seems like Brazilians Elias Silverio and Kevin Souza have drawn some rather easy assignments in Ernest Chavez and Mark Eddiva. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the TUF Brazil 3 Finale today at Several Bookmakers. ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm EST) Stipe Miocic -505 Fabio Maldonado +335 TUF Brazil 3 Heavyweight Final Antonio Carlos Jr. -180 Vitor Miranda +140 TUF Brazil 3 Middleweight Final Warlley Alves -140 Marcio Alexandre Jr. +100 Demian Maia -420 Alexander Yakovlev +300 Rony Jason -190 Robert Peralta +150 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 2, 8pm EST) Rashid Magomedov -315 Rodrigo Damm +235 Elias Silverio -350 Ernest Chavez +250 Paulo Thiago -210 Gasan Umalatov +160 Kevin Souza -505 Mark Eddiva +335 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30pm EST) Ricardo Abreu -350 Wagner Silva +250 Marcos Rogerio de Lima -180 Richardson Moreira +140 Pedro Munhoz -265 Matt Hobar +185 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: As of right now, I haven’t watched a second of TUF Brazil 3, so I have no insight on the two finals. I’ll have to catch up on the show later in the week, but a cursory glance at the bouts doesn’t have me intrigued from a betting perspective. Alexander Yakovlev is definitely deserving of a roster spot in the UFC, but he has a brutal task in front of him if he wants to be successful in his debut. Three of Yakovlev’s four career losses have come by submission, and he’s facing one of the best submission artists in MMA in Demian Maia, in Maia’s home country, and it’s Yakovlev’s first ever bout outside of Russia. Not a good combination for the newcomer. Being a few fights removed from each of their UFC losses, Robbie Peralta’s defeat to Akira Corassani and Rony Jason being KO’d by Jeremy Stephens don’t look so bad, as each of those opponent has gone on to look better than expected of late. In this bout, I see both being able to take advantage of the other’s weakness should the fight end up in the right place, the problem for Rony Jason is that his weakness is his striking defense and chin, and Peralta should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Public sentiment seems to favor Jason, so I’ll probably hold off on any sort of play until the line improves. Rashid Magomedov looked impressive in his UFC debut, overcoming adversity early to win a clear decision over Tony Martin. In my opinion, he gets a favorable matchup here with Rodrigo Damm. Damm is the better overall grappler, but undersized at 155, not a great wrestler, and has almost completely abandoned his grappling at this point anyways. Magomedov has Damm outmatched on the feet, and assuming the fight stays standing, he should impress again. A couple of weeks ago I said that Louis Smolka only won his UFC debut because his opponent gassed. That was somewhat hyperbolic, as Smolka is also a talented young fighter. That statement is far more applicable to Ernest Chavez, who beat Yosdenis Cedeno, but didn’t do much to impress. Elias Silverio did show solid skills against Isaac Vallie-Flagg, dominating him for 15 minutes, and I expect something similar here. Silverio is a far better striker, has some good wrestling, and will be significantly bigger and better conditioned than Chavez. I expect this to be a key parlay leg on this card for lots of bettors. Gasan Umalatov didn’t look particularly impressive in his UFC debut, but Paulo Thiago has been on a downslide for quite some time now, losing five of his past seven. Thiago can still grapple a bit, but his striking has never really improved, he almost seems indifferent in his fights. I think it’s crazy for anyone to have a tremendous amount of confidence in him here, and I’ll definitely be avoiding a bet on Thiago. I may even pick Umalatov outright, but I’m undecided there. I was one of the few who picked Mark Eddiva to win his UFC debut, but he’s taking a massive step up in competition here and he just doesn’t have the skills to be successful. He won’t be able to get takedowns consistently on Souza, and he’s going to get torched on the feet. This is going to end up a justifiably high line, and is the perfect type of fight to get the Brazil crowd to make some noise. Expect Souza to be right beside Silverio in plenty of parlays this weekend. Back to TUF Brazil. I’m aware of Ricardo Abreu because of his jiu-jitsu credentials, and Wagner Silva seems to be a grappler as well, so I’m expecting Abreu to win but without doing more research it’s not something I’m planning on betting. Marcos de Lima was supposed to be a top prospect when he came into Strikeforce a few years back, but never really panned out, losing to Mike Kyle and never getting another bout in the promotion. Richardson Moreira has been putting his dangerous leg lock game to use on the Brazilian circuit, picking up four of his seven victories by some sort of leg submission. This one comes down to whether Moreira can get a hold of de Lima’s legs early, or if it stays on the feet, where de Lima prefers. I’ll side with the striker, very slightly. This is the type of fight Pedro Munhoz should have gotten as his UFC debut all along. Having him face Raphael Assuncao was silly matchmaking (even on short notice), and unnecessarily derailed a very good prospect. Hobar’s style fits very well with what Munhoz wants to do, as he prefers to grapple and Munhoz should be able to nullify that part of his game — or just avoid takedowns completely — and show off his superior striking.
