UFC 146: May 26, 2012 Las Vegas, Nevada Lavar Johnson (-125) Profile: Johnson (17-5) will be fighting for the third time in four months, replacing the injured Mark Hunt (knee) on just 10 days notice. He has rebounded nicely from losing his last two bouts in Strikeforce, earning Knockout of the Night honors in his first two UFC fights against Joey Beltran and Pat Barry. The TKO victory against Barry came at UFC on FOX 3 only three weeks ago on May 5 at the 4:38 mark of the first round. Before losing two straight in Strikeforce, Johnson had reeled off seven wins in a row. The 34-year-old has never seen one of his bouts go to a decision, and he has been trying to make up for lost time ever since missing nearly a year of action after suffering from a gun shot wound that occurred at a family reunion on July 4, 2009. Stefan Struve (-105) Profile: Struve (27-5) has one of the most impressive overall records in the heavyweight division, and he is 7-3 in the UFC with all three losses coming against solid opponents. The 6-foot-11 Dutch fighter has won his last two bouts over Dave Herman (TKO) and Pat Barry (triangle armbar submission) since getting knocked out by Travis Browne at UFC 130 nearly one year ago. Struve has also suffered losses to Roy Nelson and Junior dos Santos in the UFC, both by TKO, and only one of his career fights has gone to the third round. In his last five bouts, he is 4-1 with three of the wins coming by KO/TKO and the other one earning Submission of the Night against Barry. Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has made Johnson a small -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) over Struve, who is a -105 underdog according to the UFC 146 odds. All three of Struve’s losses in the UFC have come with him as an underdog, and he also has two wins as an underdog over Barry and Chase Gormley. Struve is 5-0 as a favorite in the UFC while Johnson is 2-0 as a dog, as he was not favored in either of his last two fights. Johnson was 3-1 as a favorite in Strikeforce, and the fact that he has never gone the distance makes knockout/submission props more attractive to bettors looking to back him in this spot. Struve also has just one decision win in his career, so the odds of this fight ending earlier rather than later should be considered.
