Ed HermanUFC Fight Night 40 Date: May 10, 2014 Arena: US Bank Arena City: Cincinnati, OH UFC Fight Night 40 will be live from the US Bank Arena in Cincinnati, OH tonight starting at 10pm ET with preliminary action kicking off on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm ET, and then continuing on FOX Sports 2 at 8pm ET. UFC Fight Night 40 comes to us with 13 scheduled bouts and we are surely in for an exciting night of fights. If interested in wagering on the props suggested in this article, or any other props or wagers, you may do so at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My prop plays for UFC Fight Night 40 are: Erick Silva (-210) vs Matt Brown (+190) Silva by T/KO (+429) 1u to win 4.29u In my opinion the most likely outcome of this bout is Silva winning inside the distance. The prop on T/KO (+429) has a greater payoff than the Submission prop (+145), and contrary to popular opinion, I think Silva is more likely to T/KO Brown than he is to submit him. He also has a good chance of submitting Brown, as he has the superior submission game of the two, but the fight starts on the feet, where I think he is likely to hurt Brown. For my full write-up on this welterweight main event, please look into my fight article for the bout. Neil Magny (+220) vs Tim Means (-240) Means Inside the Distance (+121) 1u to win 1.21u Means by Submission (+823) .25u to win 2.05u Even though Magny has a six inch reach advantage over Means, as well as a physical size advantage, I think it is going to be Means who gets the better of this match-up. Means is faster and has superior striking, and I think that is going to be the difference in this fight. I am expecting Means to knock him out, but if that does not happen, I think he will take home a decision. As for the Means by Submission prop, it is not his most likely route to victory, but I think he is very much capable of submitting Magny, and at +823, I feel it’s worth a stab. Chris Cariaso (+135) vs Louis Smolka (-145) Smolka -3.5 (+175) 1u to win 1.75u I think Smolka’s height and reach advantage is going to play the difference in this one, as I expect him to do a good job of using his reach, as well as implementing his speed en route to picking up a unanimous decision over the veteran Cariaso. I won’t be surprised if he earns the finish, but I think more often than not, he picks this one up on the judges’ scorecards. I think he keeps it on the feet for 15 minutes and outstrikes Cariaso to a unanimous 30-27 nod from the judges. Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (+140) vs Rafael “Sapo” Natal (-150) Herman by T/KO (+400) .25u to win 1u I think a T/KO is Herman’s only, or rather- best chance at winning this fight. It is not likely he submits the Brazilian, and I don’t think he can do enough to take a decision, because it is Natal who holds the advantages in both striking and grappling. At +400, I think this play is worth a look, especially if you already have money on Natal. Ben Wall (+245) vs Justin Salas (-265) Wall by T/KO (+1700) .25u to win 4.25u This is not the most likely outcome to this fight, but there is a chance of it happening. I think the odds of it happening are much greater than the line of +1700 suggests, so I have to recommend a stab here.


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