The main event of Bellator 119 is a three-round featherweight tournament final between Desmond “The Predator” Green and Daniel Weichel. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Green as a -150 favorite (bet $150 to win $100) while Weichel is a +130 underdog (bet $100 to win $130). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Green at -170 and Weichel at +130, meaning there has been action in the underdog Weichel’s favor as the lines have tightened. I disagree with the action in Weichel’s favor as I’m picking Green to win the fight. Here’s why. Green (11-2) made it to the featherweight tournament finals with wins over Mike Richman and Will Martinez. The 24-year-old is a grinder with very good wrestling and some decent standup. He also possesses some ground and pound. 3-1 overall in the Bellator cage, Green seems to be improving every fight and since he’s a young guy I expect to see that improvement once again this weekend when he takes on Weichel for the featherweight tournament crown. Although he isn’t as experienced as his opponent is, Green certainly has the style to defeat Weichel, and that’s why you see Green as the favorite heading into the matchup. Weichel (33-8) made it to the featherweight tournament finals with wins over Matt Bessette and Scott Cleve. The 29-year-old is very experienced and has been around forever, fighting on the European regional scene since the early 2000s against opponents like Paul Daley, Dennis Siver, and Thiago Tavares. He is primarily a submission-based fighter and has won 20 fights via tapout during his career, as well as another five via T/KO. However, he is one of those fighters with a kill-or-be-killed attitude as he himself has been stopped seven times in eight career losses. Currently riding a five-fight win streak, Weichel has been quite impressive in Bellator but this weekend runs into a tough test in the form of Green, who looks like he can neutralize Weichel’s strengths, at least on paper. And that’s why you see Weichel enter as the dog this weekend. I believe Green will be able to use his wrestling to dictate where this fight takes place, and I think he will do enough with his striking and takedowns to take home a decision win and capture the featherweight tournament crown. At -150, I like Green for either a straight play or as part of a two-team parlay as I see value in the current line. Truth be told, I’m really surprised the line has dipped so low as I expected the public to take this line the other way, so I think -150 is a fair price. As for the total, I lean towards OVER 2.5 rounds at -215 but I prefer the moneyline on Green here for a bet.
