One of the preliminary bouts at UFC Fight Night 40 is a three-round bantamweight scrap between Eddie Wineland and Johnny Eduardo. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Wineland as a -425 favorite (bet $425 to win $100) while Eduardo is a +320 underdog (bet $100 to win $320). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Wineland at -425 and Eduardo at +305, meaning there has been tiny action on Wineland as the lines have tightened. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more action on Wineland as I’m definitely picking him to win this fight. Here’s why. Wineland (21-9-1) is one of the top-five bantamweight fighters in the world. The 29-year-old American has excellent boxing with knockout power in both his fists, excellent wrestling, and also possesses a solid chin. He is also long and rangy for 135 and has great cardio. Although Wineland is only 3-3 overall in the UFC, keep in mind the losses came to Renan Barao, Urijah Faber, and Joseph Benavidez, three amazing fighters. The wins came over Yves Jabouin, Brad Pickett, and Scott Jorgensen, which are definitely three nice scalps to have on the resume. A full-time firefighter, Wineland is in the prime of his career right now and he wants to get another crack at Barao and his bantamweight title. And with a win over Barao’s teammate at Nova Uniao, Eduardo, Wineland will be very close to doing just that. Eduardo (26-9) is a long-time veteran of the sport, having competed in his first professional MMA match all the way back in 1996. The 35-year-old is an excellent muay Thai fighter who possesses nasty leg kicks and he also has an underrated submission game to go along with his tremendous standup skills. He’s won 12 of his last 13 fights, and is overall 1-1 in the UFC with a win over Jeff Curran and a loss to Raphael Assuncao. However, he hasn’t competed in nearly two years and the UFC isn’t giving him an easy matchup at all here by putting Wineland in his path. Although Eduardo likely defeats the majority of bantamweights in the UFC, coming in after such a long layoff and taking on an extremely-talented fighter in Wineland seems like a terrible combination and it’s hard to envision Eduardo getting the win in this spot. I think Wineland is a better fighter in every area of the game with exception of leg kicks and should cruise pretty easily in this fight. Eduardo is aging and is coming off a long layoff while Wineland is hungry to get another title shot. Look for Wineland to use his wrestling in reverse here and outpoint Eduardo on the feet en route to a unanimous decision win, or possibly even knock the Brazilian out cold. At -425 I do like Wineland here for a bet as part of a two-team parlay as I see value in the current line. As for props, I do lean towards Wineland winning a decision but that’s not worth betting unless it’s like +200 or higher as he could certainly get a stoppage. Regardless of method, though, I definitely think Wineland wins this fight.
