WrestleMania 30 had more upsets than the average Mania. Bray Wyatt was the favorite until he faced John Cena in the ring. Undertaker was the favorite over Brock Lesnar until literally moments before the PPV went to air. For those who doubt the viability of wrestling bets, WrestleMania 30 was the proof that much like basketball or football, the outcome is NEVER certain no matter what the sports books say. If the Undertaker can lose at WrestleMania after 21 straight victories, then it’s safe to say with a more than reasonable amount of certainty that ANYTHING can happen. Never take the sure thing for granted. Now that we’ve got that bit of preamble out of the way, what are the chances of a huge Brock Lesnar level upset happening at WWE Extreme Rules this Sunday? The reason a swerve at WrestleMania is big news is because it’s the biggest event of the year, the “showcase of the immortals” as it were. That means that the longshots a month later are much less likely than when Vince McMahon is furiously rewriting the scripts all weekend long until Sunday. The further down the card the wrestlers are, the less likely the upset is. That means if you’re looking at the +4000 line available for R-Truth and Xavier Woods at Several Bookmakers, even though they have the 2-on-1 advantage against Alexander Rusev, you’re taking an awfully big risk to bet on the dog. That doesn’t mean there isn’t some wiggle room in the action though, nor the chance that the WWE writers will change their minds before the pre-show starts at 7:30 ET on Sunday night. Right now Evolution is a -230 favorite over The Shield at +170. It makes sense to drag out the feud with The Shield given they’ve just started to pick up momentum as babyfaces, and Ric Flair’s appearance on Raw STRONGLY suggests a swerve to help his friends. If you bet the dog though you might just be right if the writers think that a loss to Evolution kills their momentum going forward this summer. The odds get a little bit longer the further up the card in importance you go. Bray Wyatt is a -900 favorite over John Cena inside the steel cage, and after taking the loss at WrestleMania, he desperately needs this win to re-establish his credibility as a main eventer. Paige is a -2000 favorite over Tamina Snuka, and since they crowned her as Divas Champion the night after Mania, they’re not likely to take it off her this soon. The same goes for WWE World Heavyweight Champion Daniel Bryan facing Kane – he’s a -900 favorite over The Big Red Machine at +500. The most interesting line to me is Cesaro being a -1500 favorite in a triple threat against Rob Van Dam and Jack Swagger. With no title on the line and Cesaro’s manager Paul Heyman being obsessed with his client Brock Lesnar breaking Undertaker’s streak, this is the one where +700 for the field really looks tempting. As always please remember that when betting on sports entertainment, the results are predetermined, but the whims of the creative writers are not. Also please wager responsibly and bet only what you can afford. We’ll see you again for WWE Payback in June!
