A bantamweight feature fight at Bellator 118 features Marcos “Loro” Galvao against Thomas “The Die Hard Kidd” Vasquez. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Galvao as a -610 favorite (bet $610 to win $100) while Vasquez is a +425 underdog (bet $100 to win $425). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Galvao at -555 and Vasquez at +365, and there has been some action on the favorite Galvao thus far. I agree with the line movement towards Galvao as I’m also picking him to win the fight. Here’s why. Galvao (15-6-1) is one of the finest bantamweight fighters in Bellator. The 32-year-old has been around forever and holds notable wins over the likes of Travis Marx, Ed West, Chase Beebe and Fredson Paixao. He also has an extremely controversial decision loss to Joe Warren on his resume. A veteran of the WEC, Shooto, Fury FC, and Ring of Combat, Galvao is overall 5-3 in Bellator and won a bantamweight tournament. He did lose to current champ Eduardo Dantas in the championship fight, but other than that and two controversial decision losses to the aforementioned Warren and Alexis Vila, Galvao has been nothing but terrific inside the cage as of late and I truly believe he’s a great fighter. He has solid wrestling, standup, and a ground game, and as of late he’s also showing tremendous aggression, although his chin is still his weakpoint. A very well-rounded fighter, Galvao is one of the most underrated 135ers out there and with a win against Vasquez likely finds himself in the next Bellator bantamweight tourney. Vasquez (7-0) is an undefeated prospect who is fighting under the Bellator banner for the second time, having picked up a win in his debut in 2012 against a lesser opponent. Only 27 years of age, Vasquez is a veteran of the Strikeforce Challengers series and from all accounts of it seems like a decent prospect with finishing ability as he owns five career stoppage wins. His ground game also seems to be pretty legit. However, the level of competition Vasquez has fought has been extremely poor and Galvao is by far the best fighter he’s ever fought in his career. That, and his biggest strength (his ground game) is also arguably Galvao’s biggest strength. I’m not sure exactly why Bellator is sacrificing an undefeated prospect to Galvao here, but based on what I’ve seen that’s definitely what they’re doing and that’s why you see Vasquez enter this bout as a huge underdog. Although Vasquez is undefeated, I believe Galvao will be way too much for him to handle and I see the veteran overwhelming his opponent and scoring a stoppage in this fight via either T/KO or submission. In a fight like this one where the favorite is at such high juice, often it’s better to consider the props and in this particular matchup I think there’s value in the UNDER 2.5 rounds prop at +105. Although Galvao could grind out a decision, I think more times than not he stops Vasquez so I like the under at plus money. Plus, if Vasquez somehow does earn the shock upset, it’s more than likely to be via stoppage. So I definitely lean towards the UNDER for a play here.
