UFC 172 Date: April 26, 2014 Arena: Baltimore Arena City: Baltimore, MD Apart from my main event play on light heavyweight title challenger Glover Texeira, these are my live dog plays for UFC 172… Lightweight bout: Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman (+245) vs Danny “Last Call” Castillo (-265) Gabe’s Prediction: I can’t believe how everybody is counting Brenneman out of this fight. He is a two-and-a-half-to-one underdog. If this were a couple summers ago and Brenneman was making the move from welterweight to lightweight after his unanimous decision over Rick Story, while Castillo was coming off his unanimous decision loss to Jacob Volkmann, he would have been a four to one favorite over Castillo. But now, because he has had some bad luck against some heavy hitters, he is being overlooked and undervalued. I think the odds for this fight are way out of whack, and while I’m not overly confident Brenneman will pull out with the win, I do think he should be a -160 favorite, definitely not a +245 underdog. The only reason I did not handicap him as a bigger favorite is because of the possibility that he may already have one foot out of the door. I am not sure how motivated he is for this fight. With a loss, he will be retiring, so that scares me a bit. However, I do believe that if he shows up mentally focused and hungry for a win to save his UFC career, he should not have too much trouble outwrestling Castillo. If I could be convinced that he is hungry and motivated to get his career back on track and make a run in the UFC’s 155 pound division, I would make a much bigger play on him than I am currently willing. Needless to say, contrary to popular opinion, I think getting “The Spaniard” at these odds is a gift, and a value play I cannot pass up on. Gabe’s Call: “The Spaniard” by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Charlie Brenneman (+245) 3u to win 7.35u Lightweight bout: Jim Miller (-192) vs Yancy Medeiros (+177) Gabe’s Prediction: Simply put, I think Medeiros could finish Miller or take a decision. I think Medeiros should be a -130 favorite, because as long as he avoids going to the mat with Miller, he should pull away with the victory. He has a great chin and has proved to have terrific takedown defense, so I am expecting him to keep this fight standing and either stop Miller or outpoint him for three rounds of action. Gabe’s Call: Medeiros by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Yancy Medeiros (+177) 3u to win 5.31u Light heavyweight bout: “Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis (-215) vs Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (+195) Gabe’s Prediction: I think this fight will be closer than the odds indicate, but I do favor Davis to pick up a decision using his superior wrestling. “Rumble” may be able to defend several takedowns, but I don’t think he will defend all of them. I think this will be a tough fight for Davis, but his wrestling will prove to be the difference, and he will ultimately pull away with the W. On the mat, he may also be able to secure a submission finish, but I think a decision is more likely, since I feel “Rumble” has improved his submission defense. While I favor “Mr. Wonderful” to get the win, I think the odds of Johnson knocking Davis out or edging out a decision are good enough to warrant a value play. Gabe’s Call: “Mr. Wonderful” by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Anthony Johnson (+195) 2u to win 3.9u
