One of the main card bouts at UFC 172 is a three-round middleweight bout between former Strikeforce middleweight champion Luke Rockhold and Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Rockhold as a -800 favorite (bet $800 to win $100) while Boetsch is a +550 underdog (bet $100 to win $550). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Rockhold at -600 and Boetsch at +400, and the betting public has been all over Rockhold since the line opened. I agree with the betting public siding with Rockhold here, as I am most definitely picking him to win this fight. Here’s why. Rockhold (11-2) is the former Strikeforce middleweight champ. A superb, multi-sport athlete, the 29-year-old Rockhold is in the prime of his MMA career right now and with a win over Boetsch at UFC 172 he could be in store for big things in the near future. The 29-year-old is a fantastic kickboxer, a great wrestler, and is terrific on the ground. He also has proven cardio to go the full five rounds, and he also has a ton of experience fighting high-level competition. In short, he is one of the most complete middleweights in the game today. Overall Rockhold has won 10 of his last 11 fights but he is only 1-1 in the UFC. However, keep in mind the loss was to Vitor Belfort in a fight that is marked with all sorts of asterisks. Rockhold’s lone UFC win came over Costas Philippou at UFC Fight Night 35 this past January, an impressive body kick knockout that earned Rockhold “Knockout of the Night” honors. Following the win over Philippou, most expected Rockhold to fight another top contender but instead he has been matched up against Boetsch in a fight most are deeming as a mismatch. Based on the styles of the two fighters, it makes sense why most believe this is Rockhold’s fight to lose, and like almost everyone else in the MMA community I believe Rockhold should win. However, Boetsch is a tough guy and his pulled a rabbit out of his hat before. But, the question is, can he do it against Rockhold? I’m not so sure. Boetsch (17-6) is one of the toughest outs in the UFC middleweight division. The 33-year-old has had two stints in the UFC, going 8-5 overall including a 5-2 mark as a UFC middleweight. A solid wrestler with good knockout power, Boetsch is known mainly for his durability, having only been finished three times in 23 fights, including only once as a middleweight. In his fight against Yushin Okami at UFC 144, Boetsch was dominated for two full rounds only to come back in the third and win by knockout. And in fights against CB Dollaway and Hector Lombard, Boetsch was beaten up and yet still managed to get his hand raised, so this is a fighter who knows how to please the judges. However, while Boetsch does have a solid record, if you look closer you can see that he very well could be on a four-fight losing streak at the moment and that’s why most are fading him here against Rockhold. Although I don’t believe Boetsch can ever be counted out of a fight in the Octagon, he has a very difficult matchup here against Rockhold and everyone knows it, and that’s exactly why he’s such a big underdog. I believe Rockhold is better in every single area of the the game and the only question is if he can finish Boetsch or if “The Barbarian” is tough enough to go to decision. Either way, I expect Rockhold to use his wrestling in reverse, keep this fight standing, and light up Boetsch with his arsenal of kicks. He could potentially knock Boetsch out with a liver kick or possibly rock him with a strike and then submit him with a rear-naked choke, but Boetsch is a tough guy and I think this fight will go pretty late. Still, I certainly expect Rockhold to get his hand raised at end of 15 minutes or less. The moneyline on Rockhold is sky-high at -800 for a reason, and that’s because he should absolutely win this fight. The only way Rockhold loses is if Boetsch lands a lucky punch, but with his lack of reach I just don’t see that being possible so I can’t fault anyone for parlaying Rockhold here, even at the high price. However, I think the props are the best way to bet this fight and I’m really considering a play on the fight starts round three at -117. Like I said, I fully expect Rockhold to win but I think Boetsch is tough enough to make it to round three and at a Pick ’em price, I think that prop has some value. In saying that, if you are favoring a Rockhold finish (which is understandable considering the matchup_ I can’t blame you for taking Rockhold wins inside the distance at -145. Either way, I fully expect the former Strikeforce champ to win this fight in impressive fashion.
